I don;t think Russia is a percieved Nuclear threat to the US. They are just updating severely out of date equipment. They also are one of the leading arms dealers WW and need that revenue to survive.
The bigger issue is the neglect of infrastructure and Democratic policies to ensure economic growth without a war machine driving that growth.
They know that America would have no problem buying oil from Russia instead of Arab countries. Maybe America can help them with technologies to help economic growth in Russia but if they would become a military threat, Russia will fall back into the same slump they had under Communist rule.
What is to gain in threatening America? Nobody wins that battle.
"Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those who say this are witless." ~Ayatollah Khomeini
I have seen some information that would suggest they (the Iranians) have been actively working on delivery systems. You don't have a weapon until you put it in something that can deliver a weapon. I'm not talking about uranium or fissile material or the warhead – I'm talking about what one does with a warhead.
So how does this puzzle fit together? The Iranians probably do not have a nuclear weapon ready to use today. What's the proof of that? Simple. If the Iranians had a nuclear weapon, the mad mullahs would just use it. A missile launched toward Tel Aviv would change the Middle East permanently and Iran has sworn death to Israel.
Very probably, the mullahs are close to having a nuclear weapon and a workable delivery system. If they have been enriching yellow cake uranium for over a year, they may have enough to build one or two bombs. Looking closely at what Colin Powell said yesterday, the only problem seems to be getting the bomb mechanism sufficiently miniaturized to fit on one of Iran's already tested Shahib-3 missiles. Maybe that takes three or four more months, possibly longer, but the clock is ticking and the success of the effort is not much in doubt.
What are the negotiations with the EU-3 about? A good hypothesis would be that the Iranians are merely lying to buy time. Maybe if the IAEA could be convinced for a while, Iran would get enough nuclear fuel to make operational the nuclear power plant the Soviets have built for them. This is the same path the North Koreans took when they made fools out of the Clinton administration – if John Kerry had won the election, the Iranians would have had another sympathetic ear in the White House. Kerry said as much in the first debate with President Bush.
The problem is Israel. Having lost over 6 million Jews in the Holocaust, the Jews are not about to allow Iran to go operational with a nuclear capability. A pre-emptive strike by Israel seems inevitable, regardless of the operational complexity of taking out over 300 largely hidden and buried nuclear sites spread around Iran. The United States has already sold to Israel the bunker buster bombs that would be needed in such an operation. A combined Israeli strike of commandos on the ground and firepower from the air would be better done with U.S. cooperation, but the Israelis are unlikely to wait long for permission.
The State Department has had four years under President Bush to pursue diplomatic solutions. Nothing has worked. Iran continues to march toward nuclear weapons. President Bush has just decided to change command at the State Department and a weeding can be expected there as well as in the CIA. A tougher stance in the State Department and the CIA can be expected to line up to support military action in Iran if that's what it comes to.
We do not have years more to solve the problem in Iran. The scenario may well begin to be played out as early as March, once we are past the inauguration and the new players in Bush's second term are in place.
D
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aka deltacent aka deltater
Life may not be the party I had hoped for.......
But while I'm here I might just as well listen to the music and dance..
I see the lies thru the duplicityof The Iranian leaders.
They back away because Russia andother allies have joined the US in condemming their actions.
Do the Iranians think we are totally stupid? Must be so.
Iranian denials
Iran has repeatedly denied any plans to build nuclear weapons, insisting that its nuclear programs are for civilian purposes and in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. At the same time, it has declared its intention to proceed with the construction of a nuclear power plant at the southern port of Bushehr and to develop uranium enrichment facilities to provide reactor fuel.
Commenting on the NCRI claims, Iran’s nuclear negotiator Hussein Mossavian declared: “The allegation is timed to coincide with the next meeting of the board of governors of the IAEA. And every time just before the meeting there are these kinds of allegations either from the United States or terrorist groups. And every time these allegations have proven to be false.”
Just before the previous IAEA meeting in September, former US weapons inspector David Albright released satellite images of an industrial complex at Parchin, claiming it was “a logical candidate” for developing the high-explosive components needed for a nuclear weapon trigger device. The US used this vague assertion as part of the “evidence” against Iran to browbeat IAEA members into agreeing to tougher measures.
The September meeting stopped short of acceding to the US demand to automatically refer Iran to the UN Security Council if it failed to fully implement IAEA decisions. But it did call on Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment program and for a full IAEA report on the country’s nuclear activities. The confidential report, completed this week, concluded: “All declared nuclear material in Iran had been accounted for, and therefore such material is not diverted to prohibited activities .”
However, the report added: “The agency is, however, not in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.” The rider simply underscores the fact that the US is demanding the impossible: that Iran prove it has no nuclear weapons programs anywhere within its extensive territory. Every attempt by Tehran to disprove bogus US allegations is met with further spurious claims about its nuclear facilities.
As far as Washington is concerned, all of Iran’s nuclear programs—civilian or military—are illegitimate and should be stopped. The US has repeatedly pressured Russia to pull out of its contract to complete the Bushehr power reactor—demands that Moscow has so far rebuffed.
If, in the final analysis, Iran is seeking to produce a nuclear arsenal, it has every justification for doing so. In 2002, Bush branded the country, along with North Korea and Iraq, as part of an “axis of evil”. Having subjugated Afghanistan and Iraq, the US, with its hi-tech weaponry and huge nuclear arsenal, has tens of thousands of troops positioned on two of Iran’s borders. Both the US and its ally Israel have hinted at taking pre-emptive military action.
Following the IAEA meeting in September, the Iranian regime declared that the IAEA resolution was illegal and that it would proceed with its uranium enrichment plans. Tehran has, however, come under intense pressure from Britain, France and Germany to accede to the IAEA demands. It reluctantly agreed to the deal with the EU last weekend after the three powers threatened to side with the US and refer Iran to the UN Security Council. The agreement provoked an angry response in Tehran where hardline critics pointed out that Iran had secured only vague promises of EU assistance in return for freezing its uranium enrichment program.
As far as France, Britain and Germany were concerned, it was imperative that the issue be defused before the IAEA meeting, in order to preempt possible US action. The real motivations of the US and its European rivals have nothing to do with Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programs. Rather, all of these powers are engaged in an increasingly bitter competition for domination in the resource-rich regions of the Middle East and Central Asia and regard Iran as vital to their strategies.
For the Bush administration, a belligerent stance on Iran’s nuclear program is a useful device for thwarting Europe’s growing economic relations with Iran. In addition, by menacing Tehran, Washington hopes to extract Iranian assistance in suppressing opposition to the US occupation of Iraq, particularly from the southern Shiite population. While the US military is at present stretched to the limit, this week’s IAEA meeting provides an opportunity for the Bush administration to lay down the law to Iran and Europe, and establish the basis for far more aggressive action in the future.
What are we suposed to do? Sit back and allow Iran to firm up their Nuclear weapons.? NO . NO. We need to ""Persuade" them its in thier best interest to stop all nuclear p;lanning or it will bode ill in this Terrorist friendly state.
D
aka deltacent aka deltater
Life may not be the party I had hoped for.......
But while I'm here I might just as well listen to the music and dance..
11-19-2004 02:59 PM
