I think we all have some preferences and/or predictions based on strategy and favorites ?
In the Lil Morris thread, the subject of boot order came up and I thought maybe at this point it deserves it's own thread ?
....................
This was Kooka's order:
quote:
Originally posted by Kookaburra
Here's my order: (subject to change of course)
Rupert
Jon
Burton
Lil
Tijuana
Sandra
Darrah
Christa (winner)
And I said:
quote:
Originally posted by oldbutafan
That order can't work ... strategically Kooka, but I think I'll take this over to a new thread on strategy.
And here's why I said that:
If Rupert goes, everything as far as current alliances evens up, and the chances of a Burton, Lil, Jon final 3 will greatly increase..
Here's how the tenuous alliances now stand:
Rupert/Christa/Sandra
Darrah/T
Burton/Lil
Jon .. the "puppetmaster" blowing as the wind blows.
Take away Rupert and
Jon becomes sort of a swing vote and it would give him lots of room to manipulate.
See ?
Christa/Sandra
Darrah/T
Burton/Lil
Jon ..
If they keep Burton around he's strong and may keep winning immunity. (Jon and Burton are already plotting.)
If Rupe goes Christa will be right behind him, and we'll have:
Sandra
Darrah/T
Burton/Lil
Jon ..
Jon can take his pick, but one of the ladies (not Lil) will go next, depending who is perceived as strongest ... Then Jon, Burton and Lil will have a majority voting block and will take each other to the end, because they presume they can only win a jury vote against each other.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly,what is essential is invisible to the eye."
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Here's why I said that and how it can (maybe) work strategically.
First of all, they messed up big time by booting RyanO rather than Burton. At least the stronger women would have had a better chance of beating Ryan than Burton !!
Anyway, what's done is done and the precarious alliances stand as follows:
Rupert/Sandra/Christa
Burton/Lil
Tijuana/Darrah
Jon -- wherever opportunity takes him.
The girls seem to think they need a provider -- and that should be Rupert who has proven himself to all throughout !
So R/S/C should stick together and try to get T/D in their alliance for a majority ... and boot Burton at first opportunity.
Leaving:
Rupert/Sandra/Christa
Tijuana/Darrah
with the majority power
and
Lil -- with noplace for her hat but up Jon's drawers
Jon -- will be scrambling.
It will get touchy here, but if R/S/C can continue to convince T/D that only the full-time players deserve to stay they can take out Lil.
leaving:
Rupert/Sandra/Christa
Tijuana/Darrah
to take out Jon
leaving:
Rupert/Sandra/Christa
Tijuana/Darrah
Now it will be every man/woman for themselves to get to the final 4, but it still leaves RCS with the majority, and I like Darrah better than T because T hooked up with Osten ... so I think they should take out T.
Leaving:
Rupert/Sandra/Christa/Darrah
At this point they ( the women) probably should take out Rupert because in a final stamina challenge he will be too hard to beat ... but I hope they eliminate Sandra. Sas been setting herself up to be the fisherperson and the leader of the women and will also remind the jury of how great she was on the Village shopping trip.
Leaving:
Christa/Darrah/Rupert
The winner of the last immunity decides who to take to Final 2 with them ... and it's going to be a difficult choice for any of them.
If Christa is deciding:
She knows Rupert is probably not beatable in front of the jury but he's her pal.
If Rupert is deciding:
He knows Darrah is probably beatable in front of the Jury but Christa is Rupert's pal.
If Darrah is deciding, it's a toss-up but at this point she's somewhat indebted to both of them -- but the smart move is take Christa for a chance in front of the jury.
Whew !!!
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly,what is essential is invisible to the eye."
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
I don't think Rupert's alliance with Sandra and Christa is as strong as he thinks. I think they want him out, but are going with the flow right now.
If I was on the island, my strategy would be women against the men.
Even if one man won immunity, they can pick off the others.
When it finally got down to all women left, I think Sandra and Christa would form a team with the Drake ladies and get rid of Morgan tribe, then turn on each other.
Christa and Sandra will most likely come out on top, unless Sandra screws up and gets hot tempered.
The post above was my order of preference and not based on strategy.
Originally posted by Kookaburra I don't think Rupert's alliance with Sandra and Christa is as strong as he thinks. I think they want him out, but are going with the flow right now.
I am not absolutely sure either -- but Rupert has been good to and for the both of them. I would guess that their hearts and bellies may want him to stay. However, strategically they know he's a threat in challenges as well as in a final. So you are correct, they are just cats watching the mice ... so to speak.
If I was on the island, my strategy would be women against the men. Even if one man won immunity, they can pick off the others.
I totally agree, and I have been saying that from the beginning.
They have had and STILL have the voting majority and the power but these women seem to think they need the men to feed them -- Sandra has been most vocal about this, and lazy T loves Drake's camp because there is food. Sheesh ! If that dependent attitude costs them the game ... they deserve to lose !
When it finally got down to all women left, I think Sandra and Christa would form a team with the Drake ladies and get rid of Morgan tribe, then turn on each other.
????? Sandra and Christa ARE the Drake ladies so I'm not sure what you mean.
If it does come down to ALL the women -- 5 of them left ---
Sandra - Drake
Christa - Drake
Darrah - Morgan
Tijuna - Morgan
Lil - Morgan re-tread.
That leaves even numbers 2-2 with Lil as the possible swing vote and still could put her in the finals.
Christa and Sandra will most likely come out on top, unless Sandra screws up and gets hot tempered.
Sandra seems to be a pretty smart cookie and seems (curently) to be playing all the angles and considering all posible eventualities.
The post above was my order of preference and not based on strategy.
Yes, I knew that, Kooka. Was just hoping to get something additional going regarding strategies.
It's hard to concentrate on strategy when we have favorites and non-favorites, isn't it ?
I suppose it is kind of like playing Survivor !!
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly,what is essential is invisible to the eye."
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
But things have changed and with Rupert gone things will start to really spin. The ONLY way ANY of the younger women can save themselves is to unite.
If Sandra Christa T & Darrah become ( or already have become) an alliance, I have no doubt that one of them will maintain a sub-alliance with Jon or Lil because they are both ( seem to be ) beatable in certain types of challenges ... and a pretty sure beat in the final 2
So my NEW boot order preference is ( I think )
Burton
Tijuana
Lil/Jon
Sandra
Christa/Darrah
The following does depend on how things shake down and the fact that I think they may have to drag either Lil or Jon along to the final 4.
There is no way I can guess at who will win each Immunity so this, of course, can not be pre-considered.
So ...
We currently see alliances as follows:
Burton/Jon/Lill/Tijuana/Darrah
Sandra/Christa
It's 5-2 and T & D are sitting prettiest. They can stick with the terrible 3 and settle for 4th and 5th place or flip and join Sandra and Christa ... which is the smarter move.
-- So ... this week Sandra, Christa, T & Darrah form, (or have formed ? ) an alliance and hopefully boot Burton. For now they let Burton Jon and Lil think Christa is going because of the food sabotage thing.
Next week Burton's gone and alliances now stand here:
Jon/Lil
Sandra/Christa/Tijuana/Darrah
-- S, C, D and T pull Lil in at this point and explain that even though she's out of estrogen, they still consider her one of them ... (ahem ... sorry ) But Sandra/Christa tell Lil and Darrah privately that Jon is actually weaker at challenges and will be easier to beat in F2 than T ... and besides, do they remember how T was grinning at RyanO at the last TC ? so T has gotta' go ?
Lil is asked to offer Jon an opportunity to save himself by voting T out. T is kept under the impression that Jon is going.
So we have a one week "voting" pact only that includes Lil/Sandra/Christa/Darrah ... maybe Jon.
T is voted out ... Darrah maybe gives Jon a vote in feigned loyalty to her.
We are now left with
Jon
Lil/Sandra/Christa/Darrah
This is a very crucial point in the game. anyone could break off and things and power could change radically here ... but let's say Darrah decides to stick with Sandra and Christa.
The power of 3 S/C/D can probably choose who they take to the final 4 Jon or Lil. Taking Jon would seem to insure a vote to oust Sandra next ... but after that he might not swing to take Lil out because of her compliance, and beatability.
Carrying Lil along to F4 would seem to be taking someone who is wishy-washy, malleable, can't think for herself, and beatable.
So, they should probably boot Jon if they can ... and if smart, C & D then convince Lil that Sandra hasn't liked her since the Rupert fishing trip fiasco ... and that Sandra is also too physically strong to keep around especially if there's an outlast "stamina" challenge at the end.
And that would leave
Christa/Darrah/Lil
and the winner of the final immunity picking their competion in the F2.
If Christa or Darrah win they will pick Lil.
Lil would pick Darrah.
.....................
Note there is no way that I WANT to see Jon or Lil in the finals, but I think it may be unnavoidable now.
All of this is going to have to be handled with kid gloves, especially where Lil & Jon are concerned.
Even If the girls DO remove Burton next, even with the head chopped off Jon's alliance on Rupert boot week included T, D, and Lil. He might be able to convince these 3 that the 4 of them can and should take out Christa and Sandra and be the final 4. He could continue to "use" Lil as his "promised" F2 mate because he figures he may be able to beat her.
On the other hand Lil is either really stupid or smarter than we think. If she is as stupid as she acts, she won't be able to follow the game plan and will mix things up. If she's actually smarter than we think, she has her OWN plan and will mix things up and then cry and pretend it was an accident
Aaaaaaack
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly,what is essential is invisible to the eye."
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
11-16-2003 07:21 PM
