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Edward Teach
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Global Cooling? post #1  quote:



Are we about to go into Global Cooling? If so why?

quote:
Global Warming: The Cold, Hard Facts?
By Timothy Ball

Monday, February 5, 2007

Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist. And I am not the only one trying to make people open up their eyes and see the truth. But few listen, despite the fact that I was one of the first Canadian Ph.D. in Climatology and I have an extensive background in climatology, especially the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history and the human condition. Few listen, even though I have a Ph.D, (Doctor of Science) from the University of London, England and was a climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg. For some reason (actually for many), the World is not listening. Here is why.

What would happen if tomorrow we were told that, after all, the Earth is flat? It would probably be the most important piece of news in the media and would generate a lot of debate. So why is it that when scientists who have studied the Global Warming phenomenon for years say that humans are not the cause nobody listens? Why does no one acknowledge that the Emperor has no clothes on?

Believe it or not, Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science. We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification. For example, Environment Canada brags about spending $3.7 billion in the last five years dealing with climate change almost all on propaganda trying to defend an indefensible scientific position while at the same time closing weather stations and failing to meet legislated pollution targets.

No sensible person seeks conflict, especially with governments, but if we don't pursue the truth, we are lost as individuals and as a society. That is why I insist on saying that there is no evidence that we are, or could ever cause global climate change. And, recently, Yuri A. Izrael, Vice President of the United Nations sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed this statement. So how has the world come to believe that something is wrong?

Maybe for the same reason we believed, 30 years ago, that global cooling was the biggest threat: a matter of faith. "It is a cold fact: the Global Cooling presents humankind with the most important social, political, and adaptive challenge we have had to deal with for ten thousand years. Your stake in the decisions we make concerning it is of ultimate importance; the survival of ourselves, our children, our species," wrote Lowell Ponte in 1976.

I was as opposed to the threats of impending doom global cooling engendered as I am to the threats made about Global Warming. Let me stress I am not denying the phenomenon has occurred. The world has warmed since 1680, the nadir of a cool period called the Little Ice Age (LIA) that has generally continued to the present. These climate changes are well within natural variability and explained quite easily by changes in the sun. But there is nothing unusual going on.

Since I obtained my doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England my career has spanned two climate cycles. Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990's temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I'll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling.

No doubt passive acceptance yields less stress, fewer personal attacks and makes career progress easier. What I have experienced in my personal life during the last years makes me understand why most people choose not to speak out; job security and fear of reprisals. Even in University, where free speech and challenge to prevailing wisdoms are supposedly encouraged, academics remain silent.

I once received a three page letter that my lawyer defined as libellous, from an academic colleague, saying I had no right to say what I was saying, especially in public lectures. Sadly, my experience is that universities are the most dogmatic and oppressive places in our society. This becomes progressively worse as they receive more and more funding from governments that demand a particular viewpoint.

In another instance, I was accused by Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki of being paid by oil companies. That is a lie. Apparently he thinks if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment?

Personal attacks are difficult and shouldn't occur in a debate in a civilized society. I can only consider them from what they imply. They usually indicate a person or group is losing the debate. In this case, they also indicate how political the entire Global Warming debate has become. Both underline the lack of or even contradictory nature of the evidence.

I am not alone in this journey against the prevalent myth. Several well-known names have also raised their voices. Michael Crichton, the scientist, writer and filmmaker is one of them. In his latest book, "State of Fear" he takes time to explain, often in surprising detail, the flawed science behind Global Warming and other imagined environmental crises.

Another cry in the wildenerness is Richard Lindzen's. He is an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, renowned for his research in dynamic meteorology - especially atmospheric waves. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has held positions at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and MIT. Linzen frequently speaks out against the notion that significant Global Warming is caused by humans. Yet nobody seems to listen.

I think it may be because most people don't understand the scientific method which Thomas Kuhn so skilfully and briefly set out in his book "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions." A scientist makes certain assumptions and then produces a theory which is only as valid as the assumptions. The theory of Global Warming assumes that CO2 is an atmospheric greenhouse gas and as it increases temperatures rise. It was then theorized that since humans were producing more CO2 than before, the temperature would inevitably rise. The theory was accepted before testing had started, and effectively became a law.

As Lindzen said many years ago: "the consensus was reached before the research had even begun." Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists. This has reached frightening levels with these scientists now being called climate change denier with all the holocaust connotations of that word. The normal scientific method is effectively being thwarted.

Meanwhile, politicians are being listened to, even though most of them have no knowledge or understanding of science, especially the science of climate and climate change. Hence, they are in no position to question a policy on climate change when it threatens the entire planet. Moreover, using fear and creating hysteria makes it very difficult to make calm rational decisions about issues needing attention.

Until you have challenged the prevailing wisdom you have no idea how nasty people can be. Until you have re-examined any issue in an attempt to find out all the information, you cannot know how much misinformation exists in the supposed age of information.

I was greatly influenced several years ago by Aaron Wildavsky's book "Yes, but is it true?" The author taught political science at a New York University and realized how science was being influenced by and apparently misused by politics. He gave his graduate students an assignment to pursue the science behind a policy generated by a highly publicised environmental concern. To his and their surprise they found there was little scientific evidence, consensus and justification for the policy. You only realize the extent to which Wildavsky's findings occur when you ask the question he posed. Wildavsky's students did it in the safety of academia and with the excuse that it was an assignment. I have learned it is a difficult question to ask in the real world, however I firmly believe it is the most important question to ask if we are to advance in the right direction.

Dr. Tim Ball, Chairman of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project (www.nrsp.com), is a Victoria-based environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg.


Old Post 02-09-2007 09:03 PM
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Re: Global Cooling? post #2  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #1 :
Are we about to go into Global Cooling? If so why?



Unlike the politically motivated junk science of the MMGW agenda, true science has proven that there is a regular, worldwide, 1,500 year (plus or minus 500 years) warming / cooling cycle that goes back at least one million years. This is confirmed in ice cores, ocean sediments, stalagtites, tree rings, and human records. There is no proof of what is forcing this 1,500 year cycle, but the best evidence points to the sun as the cause.

In recent times, there was the Roman Warming followed by the Dark Ages, followed by the Little Climate Optimum (or Midievil Warming), followed by the Little Ice Age, followed by the Modern Warming which we are now in. The Little Ice Age lasted until the late 1800s.

The Little Climate Optimum was warmer than today's warming cycle. If manmade CO2 is causing global warming today, how does one explain how the LCO was warmer without any manmade CO2?

Moreover, the scientific eveidence shows that it is the coolings that afflict the world with famine, disease, death and destruction, whereas the warmings have been benificial. The primary characteristic of the coolings is bad storms and erratic weather, unlike the warmings which produce more food and bring stable weather.

According to this long range, 1,500 year cycle, there is no question that we are in a warming, and will once again enter a cooling. This transition can happen in as little as one or two decades. Therefore, the next cooling cycle could be right around the corner. The so-called whacky, or wild weather that the global warming proponents and news media love to highlight as evidence of their cause, could actually be evidence of entering the cooling cycle. Such weather is the primary destructive attribute of the cooling cycle.


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post #3  quote:

I believe that last year was the beginning of the cooling cycle. But hey it's only my opinion.

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post #4  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #3 :
I believe that last year was the beginning of the cooling cycle. But hey it's only my opinion.


Yes it is hard to identify the phase until you are about a century or so into it.


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post #5  quote:

if last year was the cooling cycle i want to know why we had record breaking heat waves in central plains area. it was 115 + humid for about a month. We broke a heat record every other day or few days the entire summer.

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post #6  quote:

quote:
Dreamzwalker said this in post #5 :
if last year was the cooling cycle i want to know why we had record breaking heat waves in central plains area. it was 115 + humid for about a month. We broke a heat record every other day or few days the entire summer.


You can't judge by any given weather event. The global warming phennomena, whether man caused or not, is only based on a measurement of average temperature increase that is less than 1 degree per century.


Old Post 02-15-2007 12:23 AM
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post #7  quote:

Yeah it's oveall temp.

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post #8  quote:

It seems to me like an enviromental issue that has become partisan. If so, neither side is going to win. At worst the Global Warming theory/fact is accepted and we start treating the environment better. What's the matter with that? Lessen the dependency on oil, save electricity, all that jazz.

-HECK!


Old Post 02-20-2007 09:18 PM
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post #9  quote:

quote:
HECK! said this in post #8 :
It seems to me like an enviromental issue that has become partisan. If so, neither side is going to win. At worst the Global Warming theory/fact is accepted and we start treating the environment better. What's the matter with that? Lessen the dependency on oil, save electricity, all that jazz.

-HECK!


The "all that jazz" part is fine, but there is a huge price to pay in order to offset the threat of the theory of manmade global warming. I doubt anybody wants to pay that price. They certainly don't want to pay it if the theory is wrong.


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post #10  quote:

The global cooling myth

quote:
Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichton?s State of Confusion). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.

I should clarify that I'm talking about predictions in the scientific press. There were some regrettable things published in the popular press (e.g. Newsweek; though National Geographic did better). But we're only responsible for the scientific press. If you want to look at an analysis of various papers that mention the subject, then try http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/.


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post #11  quote:

I think there are a lot of better reasons to question the validity of the theory of manmade global warming besides the contention that scientists were predicting global cooling in the 1970?s. During the Roman Warming and the Little Climate Optimum, the climate was warmer than it is today, yet nobody was producing CO2 (except for exhaling).

It is easy to determine whether the climate is warming or cooling by measuring temperature over time. Determining the cause or even quantifying the total CO2 on earth is practically impossible. The strongest evidence for today?s popular theory of MMGW is computer models. Yet there is much to question about their validity because of their observed failures, including their inability to hindcast weather conditions that have already occurred.


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post #12  quote:

quote:
EUCLID said this in post #9 :


The "all that jazz" part is fine, but there is a huge price to pay in order to offset the threat of the theory of manmade global warming. I doubt anybody wants to pay that price. They certainly don't want to pay it if the theory is wrong.


But my question is what's the worst that can happen if we do take those steps?

-HECK!


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post #13  quote:

quote:
HECK! said this in post #12 :


But my question is what's the worst that can happen if we do take those steps?

-HECK!


There is nothing wrong with treating the environment better aside from the issue of MMGW, but the problem of MMGW has been specifically defined by its proponents, and that definition also defines the specific, required solution. And a country that thinks $3.00 per gallon gasoline is painful, cannot possibly understand what level of sacrifice will be required if they are willing to move ahead with a cure for the alleged threat of MMGW.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at "moderate" levels might require cutting fossil fuel use by 60 to 80 percent worldwide. Kyoto member countries might have to cut much more in order to balance the rising emissions of developing countries such as China and India, which Kyoto exempts from compliance.

Most people want to do what is reasonable to protect the environment, but to achieve the goal of reversing the alleged effects of MMGW, the following sacrifices must be made:

1) End the use of industrial nitrogen fertilizer, which is produced by fossil fuels, and revert to 100% organic farming, which would cut food production by 50% and raise the price accordingly.

2) End the burning of coal, and revert to wind and solar for the generation of electricity, and raise the price accordingly.

3) End the consumption of meat and dairy products.

4) End private personal automobile transportation.

5) Replace the use of gasoline and diesel with ethanol.

Obviously these changes would be extreme, but we are talking about ending the use of fossil fuels. Of course, these sacrifices do not have to happen overnight, but they certainly MUST happen within ten years.


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post #14  quote:

Still there is no scientific proof that Global Warming exist. However there is a lot of scientific proof that it's a natural occurance.

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post #15  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #14 :
Still there is no scientific proof that Global Warming exist. However there is a lot of scientific proof that it's a natural occurance.


I absolutely agree. But it does not have to be proven in order to make a remedy to it the law of the land. All that is necessary is for enough people to believe that it is a proven scientific fact. Once that critial mass of belief is reached, we are all going to sacrifice for the remedy whether we want to or not. All of network TV is promoting MMGW as if it were a proven fact. They say the debate is over. And they say the proponents have won.

The proponents of MMGW obviously want to alarm us about the threat. People ought to be alarmed about the cure.

The U.S. Supreme Court is in the process of deciding whether CO2 must be regulated by the Federal Evironmental Protection Agency. If they decide that it must, they will have essentially decided that the THEORY of MMGW is no longer a theory, but proven scientifc fact, and that we must all take action to combat it. Imagine that! The highest court in the land deciding the validity of a scientific theory that some of the most brilliant scientific minds cannot agree on.


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post #16  quote:

Yeah, those computer models just don't seem to be accurate, all they do is follow the observed trend...



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post #17  quote:

quote:
Tvee said this in post #18 :


Then the only science that would be left is political science


Yes there is political science and then there is science that has been politicized as is the case with the science that is pimping the theory of man made global warming.


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post #18  quote:

I know there are a lot of people making money off of this Global Warming thing be it truth or myth.

One things for sure, it still doesn't hurt to put less polutants in the air, more for creature comfort than anything. I mean I don't want to breath all that smog but I hardly think it's destroying the Earth. Heck plants need CO2.

I don't know if any of you remember Acid Rain, for some reason that has dropped off the radar screen.


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post #19  quote:

I just hate how this is a political issue. However, you know Big Oil lobbyists are tossing money at their republican puppets to try and quash this. Same is happening on the other side I'm sure.

Facts are facts. The climate is changing and pollution is a worldwide problem. We've identified actual problems. Anything else you hear that clouds your judgment is just spin.

-HECK!


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post #20  quote:

Got some proof of that?

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post #21  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #22 :
Got some proof of that?

I'd hate to just spit out a link, but here is a good place to start:

http://www.realclimate.org/

Not only does it discuss climate science, it gives references to the peer reviewed articles and discusses the various aspects of climate science. Unlike the whole global cooling myth, which originated with Newsweek back in the 1970's, that was not the popular thought at the time and the science is more clear cut on this issue. The only debate here is the political one because there is no debate within the scientific community.

quote:
Tvee said this in post #17 :
Computer generated (Cg) images and projections.... its the stuff that makes scifi movies a hit. Fantasies become realities thru special effects.

I don't even know what you're referring to, are you talking about my graph? If you are, then no...you can easily compile data and place it on a graph by hand on the computer.


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post #22  quote:

I'm talking proof about Big oil and republicans?

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post #23  quote:

Oh and that site looks like a bunch of bloggers to me.

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post #24  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #25 :
Oh and that site looks like a bunch of bloggers to me.

Actually read the articles, they source their articles.


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post #25  quote:

Okay I'll read some of the articles if you'll watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHjczyA75jU


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post #26  quote:

Read UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING by S. Fred Singer, and Dennis T. Avery, published by Rowman & Littlefield. There is plenty of debate in the scientific community.

The "Little Ice Age" ended about 1850, and we are currently in what has been named, "The Modern Warming." The contention that this current warming trend is being cause by man is an unproven theory. It does not make any difference how many people say that it is a proven fact. A consensus cannot convert a theory into a fact.


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post #27  quote:

quote:
Edward Teach said this in post #22 :
Got some proof of that?


On which part? Thought it was pretty straightforward.

-HECK!


Old Post 02-27-2007 12:05 AM
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Inner City Blues
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post #28  quote:

Damn, what happened to my response, I thought it was posted last night...

I'll just give a gist of the longer post I wrote yesterday. He uses many poor arguments, false logic, and poor analogies. You see it from the start where he starts talking about DDT using false analogy saying, "Al Gore says this...," when Al Gore didn't say that. The ozone hole is closing and then he uses false arguments utilizing only news articles while ignoring the science.

He then goes on about global cooling, which is part of the global cooling myth, as the scientific community was at no such consensus: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94

Even so, saying something was wrong in science 30 years ago means science is wrong now is just plain stupid because a lot has changed in terms of ability to measure.

We then had the argument about water vapor, which he claims is ignored, but it is explained: http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...ack-or-forcing/

quote:
Whenever three or more contrarians are gathered together, one will inevitably claim that water vapour is being unjustly neglected by 'IPCC' scientists. "Why isn't water vapour acknowledged as a greenhouse gas?", "Why does anyone even care about the other greenhouse gases since water vapour is 98% of the effect?", "Why isn't water vapour included in climate models?", "Why isn't included on the forcings bar charts?" etc. Any mainstream scientist present will trot out the standard response that water vapour is indeed an important greenhouse gas, it is included in all climate models, but it is a feedback and not a forcing. From personal experience, I am aware that these distinctions are not clear to many, and so here is a more in-depth response (see also this other attempt).

Everything about the video is cherry-picked (up to what I saw, for some reason the entire video won't play on the computer here). But I'm sure going through this video more of the argument will fall apart. However, it still makes no sense that 2000+ scientists from over 100 countries are part of a cabal to push environmentalism. That's what this guy is trying to say, when it is really the people denying global warming that have a political motive.

Anytime someone brings up something they claim disproves global warming, it's always a book, never a place with scientific articles. When you do see scientific journals presented, for some reason or another it always seems they are funded by oil companies, it just so happens I guess... Any scientific articles presented are refuted and the people that wish to show the "holes" in global warming come off no differently than those showing the "holes" in the theory of evolution.

We can even look at the weak arguments that use terminology in the wrong way, like "theory becoming fact." Scientific theory never becomes fact, and science can't prove global warming no more than you can prove gravity. The real problem I see is that, as this video claims, the "common sense" approach usually involves muddying what science is with colloquialism, thus making nothing more than a false set of arguments.


Old Post 02-27-2007 03:20 PM
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Inner City Blues
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post #29  quote:

quote:
EUCLID said this in post #28 :
Read UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING by S. Fred Singer, and Dennis T. Avery, published by Rowman & Littlefield. There is plenty of debate in the scientific community.

The "Little Ice Age" ended about 1850, and we are currently in what has been named, "The Modern Warming." The contention that this current warming trend is being cause by man is an unproven theory. It does not make any difference how many people say that it is a proven fact. A consensus cannot convert a theory into a fact.

Your usage of the word theory as it pertains to science is incorrect and the posting of a book highlights the continuous problems with global warming deniers arguments. The reason why their arguments don't make it far in the scientific community is because their research has holes in it. As a result, they turn it into a conspiracy against them and start releasing books with the "real truth." I've seen the same tactic with evolution deniers.

But I'll say it again, theory does not become fact. Gravity is a theory, there is also cell theory, there are many theories from theory of relativity to plate tectonics. Many people try to focus on theory, but ignore what a scientific theory is, preferring to muddy the waters by pointing to the definition of theory is a regular dictionary.

These books and authors are thinking of hypotheses because it is a high bar for something to reach a theory, many facts are involved in the formation of a theory.


Old Post 02-27-2007 03:30 PM
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EUCLID
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post #30  quote:

quote:
Inner City Blues said this in post #31 :

Your usage of the word theory as it pertains to science is incorrect and the posting of a book highlights the continuous problems with global warming deniers arguments. The reason why their arguments don't make it far in the scientific community is because their research has holes in it. As a result, they turn it into a conspiracy against them and start releasing books with the "real truth." I've seen the same tactic with evolution deniers.

But I'll say it again, theory does not become fact. Gravity is a theory, there is also cell theory, there are many theories from theory of relativity to plate tectonics. Many people try to focus on theory, but ignore what a scientific theory is, preferring to muddy the waters by pointing to the definition of theory is a regular dictionary.

These books and authors are thinking of hypotheses because it is a high bar for something to reach a theory, many facts are involved in the formation of a theory.


I like how you can dismiss a book you think you don't agree with.

In science, skepticism is the road to truth. The proponents of man made global warming have declared the debate to be over, and they say they won it. When one side of a debate declares victory and demands that debating cease, who are the real deniers?

If all explanations are true and valid as theories, how do you explain why some conflict others?

Here is what dictionary says: THEORY; a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectual, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.

Once there was a theory that the earth is flat. But it has since been proven to be round, and that's a fact.


Old Post 02-27-2007 04:09 PM
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