WASHINGTON - President Bush's policy in Iraq "is not working," a high-level commission said Wednesday in a blunt, bleak assessment that urged the administration to embrace diplomacy to stabilize the country and allow withdrawal of most combat troops by early 2008.
After nearly four years of war and the deaths of more than 2,900 U.S. troops, the situation is "grave and deteriorating" and the United States' ability "to influence events within Iraq is diminishing," the commission warned.
It recommended the U.S. reduce "political, military or economic support" for Iraq if the government in Baghdad cannot make substantial progress toward providing for its own security.
The report said Bush should put aside misgivings and engage Syria, Iran and the leaders of insurgent forces in negotiations on Iraq's future, and urged him to revive efforts at a broader Middle East peace. Barring a significant change, it warned of a "slide toward chaos."
On the highly emotional issue of troop withdrawals, the commission warned against either a precipitous pullback or an open-ended commitment to a large deployment.
"Military priorities must change," the report said, toward a goal of training, equipping and advising Iraqi forces. "We should seek to complete the training and equipping mission by the end of the first quarter of 2008."
The report intensifies pressure on Bush to change direction, but he is under no obligation to follow its recommendations. Still to come are options being developed in separate studies by the Pentagon, the State Department and the National Security Council. Bush could pick and choose among the proposals of all the reports. The White House says he will make decisions within weeks.
Iraq report warns of 'grave and deteriorating' crisis
WASHINGTON (AFP) - A top US panel urged President George W. Bush to act to halt a "grave and deteriorating" crisis in Iraq by holding talks with Iran and Syria and starting to withdraw US combat forces.
As violence in Iraq left dozens more dead, Bush said he would take the report by the Iraq Study Group "very seriously" but gave no guarantees he would follow any of the 79 recommendations.
"The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating," warned the report, "The Way Forward", written by a panel of five Republicans and five Democrats. "There is no magic formula to solve the problems of Iraq."
It said if Iraq continues get worse, its government could collapse and ignite a "humanitarian catastrophe" prompting neighboring countries to intervene and hand a propaganda victory to Al-Qaeda.
The panel called on the Bush administration to launch an "immediate" diplomatic offensive to help end the sectarian strife that has left tens of thousands dead in Iraq since the US-led invasion in March 2003.
It said there should be "exhaustive and substantive" talks with Iran and Syria, arch-foes which the US administration has accused of destabilizing the Middle East.
The group also called on Bush to launch a major effort to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
"The United States cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals dierctly with the Arab-Israeli conflict and regional instability," said the report.
The Iraq Study Group proposed a major drawdown of US troops in Iraq.
"By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq."
A US rapid reaction force could be retained and US forces would remain embedded with Iraqi units. The White House pointed out however the report did not include a detailed timetable for a retreat.
The report said the United States must step up action -- including the threatened reduction of political, military and economic support -- to make the Iraqi government improve security.
"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences will be severe," the panel, headed by former secretary of state James Baker and ex-congressman Lee Hamilton, warned.
"Ladies and gentleman, there is no magic formula that will solve the problems of Iraq," Baker told a press conference at the the official unveiling of the report.
"To give the Iraqi government a chance to succeed, United States policy must be focused more broadly than on military strategy alone or on Iraq alone," Baker said, calling on US officials to seek the "active and constructive engagement of all governments that have an interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq -- including all of Iraq's neighhors."
Bush said: "This report gives a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq. It is a report that brings some really very interesting proposals, and we will take every proposal seriously, and we will act in a timely fashion."
Bush's top war ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, was to arrive in Washington later Wednesday for White House talks. Blair and Bush's pick for defense secretary Robert Gates have both said that US forces and their remaining allies are not winning the war.
The US military death toll in the conflict is beyond 2,900 and public dissatisfaction with Blair and Bush has grown in recent months.
In Iraq, at least 25 people were killed in the latest daily bloodshed. Fifteen people were killed in a roadside bomb attack in Baghdad, security officials and the US military said. Four people were killed in a suicide bombing on a bus in Baghdad's Shiite district of Sadr City.
There was no immediate official reaction to the Iraq report from the Baghdad government. But lawmakers spoke out against any threatened reduction in support.
Bassim Ridha, a top advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, said the White House has to support Baghdad "all the way".
"If they do not support the government then it will look as if they do not do what they preach," Ridha said.
Haidar al-Ibadi, a member of Maliki's Dawa party and close associate to the prime minister, said "we were told there would not be pressure as such.
"In our dialogue with the US administration, we said that we would work together."
But the Palestinian authority welcomed the report's recommendation for efforts to revive the Middle East peace process.
Nabil Abu Rudeina, a spokesman for Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas, told AFP: "This report analyzed things well."
"Resolving the Palestinian problem will open the way toward resolving all of the problems in the Middle East," he said. "All solutions must begin in Palestine."
Maliki said Tuesday he was organizing a conference aimed at bringing together the country's bitterly divided political and sectarian factions.
"We will agree on a charter of honor to end the shedding of Iraqi blood and the sectarian conflict," Maliki told reporters Tuesday.
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