Based on last night's performance and the past American Idol winners I can tell you, with no guarantee, who will be the final two. Go with me here.
Now I don't regularly watch the show. I have caught a good amount this season for the first time since the show has been on. I have never made it past Simon ripping on people auditioning. So my opinion may not be qualified, but time will tell if I am correct.
Based on the simple formula I laid about above, here are the four people that will be cut in at least the next five or six weeks (not necessarily in this order):
Mandisa, Paris, Bucky, Elliott.
There performances have been marginal to above average, with the exception of Mandisa, who has been above average for the most part. But that brings in my second criteria, with regard to past AI winners: the look. None of these people have it. No way CD covers will sell with their mugs on it. Period. Sad to say. I know this is a 'singing' competition, but that is not the only prerequisite. It's a superficial world. So, they're out.
Next two out will be Taylor (sorry Sherry) and Ace. Taylor has a solid fan base, but let's do the math. With 9 people left, let's say that Taylor even gets 35% of all the votes. That's huge. But as more people are eliminated, where are those votes going to swing? I don't think that Taylor has enough crossover appeal to fans so that 35% margin could even stay put, but that won't be enough to last too much longer. He could crack the final four, but he's toast after that. For whatever reason, Ace isn't holding his own and he's done little to help that. There is already a pretty-boy rocker like last year's runner up so Ace is in limbo as far as finding a solid fan base. If there was no Chris, Ace might have a shot. That being said, he's toast.
That leaves Kellie, Katherine & Chris. They are the most marketable with enough talent that are left. First of those three to go is Katherine. She has a look, but it's too conservative. She's in the Kelly Clarkson mold but she should have broken out the shell weeks ago. There could be an upset and she leaves earlier than the top 3, as evident by her bottom rung vote last week. I wouldn't be surprised.
So your final two will be Kellie & Chris.
Comments on my breakdown then I will share who will be the winner.
Well, I can see some reasoning in your breakdown. Though, I just don't see it being Kellie and Chris.
I think that it will be Chris, with either Katharine, or Taylor. But, who knows.
I did hear that AI is paying to fix up Elliott's teeth. They can't do surgery on his mouth though, because he's a severe diabetic, and has to wear a diabeties bag, on his body, at all times. (Last season, AI paid to do something for Bo's teeth) That will change Elliott's look, big time. I think that they will cap his teeth, to tell you the truth.
Anyway... I do believe that people look at a person's appearance... but, it does go beyond that.
:::>^..^<::: ~*~The Journey is more important than the end or the start~*~ :::>^..^<:::
Right... and I know that. People base a lot of things, in Hollywood, based off of looks. There are many shallow people... and that's too bad. I, for one, would rather have someone sing, or act, that is GREAT at what they do, who's not pretty, or over weight, rather than someone who is just medicore at either, who looks like a perfect 10. Sure, they might be great to look at... but, if they can't do the job, I would rather have the other person there. Make sense?
:::>^..^<::: ~*~The Journey is more important than the end or the start~*~ :::>^..^<:::
Come to think of it, we haven't heard anything from Ruben Studdard or Fantasia. Whatever happened to them?
I agree, it will depend on how people look to determine the final two. Besides my man Chris of course who should win on talent AND LOOKS (grrrrr ) I remember a few AIs ago when that really good singer that was kinda chubby was in the final 6 or something and EVERY WEEK simon commented on her weight. And this Mandisa girl is way heavier than her and I haven't heard a comment from Simon about it. The women will always have to slim down to be "presentable" to the public and on those magazines and cd covers. It's just lame that it isn't just a singing competition.
And heck you know that if McPhee wins, she'll be dressed in teeny tiny outfits in no time. it's inevitable.
"I'm looking for love. Real love. Ridiculous, inconvenient, consuming, can't-live-without-each-other love." - Carrie Bradshaw
"The danger of an adventure is worth a thousand days of ease and comfort" - Paulo Coehlo
Live your life like it's your last day on earth
Life is not how many breaths you take, but how many moments take your breath away.
Lawless said this in post #6 : Understandable! But, did Ruben Studdard fit that "role" in season two?
And Simon LOVED him. Yet, a woman that is large gets comments about how she should trim down, etc...
See, meant to address that point. While Rueben was pretty large, he had marketability. He had style, dressed really pimped out, even had his own clothing line. Even Luther Vandross gets the ladies.
Mandisa doesn't have style, doesn't have a 'look'.
illuminate said this in post #7 : Come to think of it, we haven't heard anything from Ruben Studdard or Fantasia. Whatever happened to them?
I agree, it will depend on how people look to determine the final two. Besides my man Chris of course who should win on talent AND LOOKS (grrrrr ) I remember a few AIs ago when that really good singer that was kinda chubby was in the final 6 or something and EVERY WEEK simon commented on her weight. And this Mandisa girl is way heavier than her and I haven't heard a comment from Simon about it. The women will always have to slim down to be "presentable" to the public and on those magazines and cd covers. It's just lame that it isn't just a singing competition.
And heck you know that if McPhee wins, she'll be dressed in teeny tiny outfits in no time. it's inevitable.
I couldn't tell you WHERE either of them are now. I don't like their style, or voices. I never got the whole Ruben thing. And Fantasia sounds like a screeching owl in church!!
I remember... they do that a lot. Though, I think that they mellowed out, this season, because Mandisa confronted Simon on his horrible comments.
Kimberly Locke got a lot of comments about her weight, from Simon, and she made the top three. She has a beautiful voice, and has an album out, and video's too.
Then, there was Lisa (can't remember her last name, but Sherry will). She was on two seasons, because she didn't make the cut in the first one she auditioned, because of her weight. And let me just say, she was like 10 - 20 lbs more than what would be considered "acceptable" It was absolutely pathetic. She was NOT over weight, and damn, she has a great voice.
:::>^..^<::: ~*~The Journey is more important than the end or the start~*~ :::>^..^<:::
KIMBERLY LOCKE! that's who I'm thinking of. yeah her. and she wasn't HALF the size Mandisa is. weird.
"I'm looking for love. Real love. Ridiculous, inconvenient, consuming, can't-live-without-each-other love." - Carrie Bradshaw
"The danger of an adventure is worth a thousand days of ease and comfort" - Paulo Coehlo
Live your life like it's your last day on earth
Life is not how many breaths you take, but how many moments take your breath away.
Then, there was Lisa (can't remember her last name, but Sherry will). She was on two seasons, because she didn't make the cut in the first one she auditioned, because of her weight. And let me just say, she was like 10 - 20 lbs more than what would be considered "acceptable" It was absolutely pathetic. She was NOT over weight, and damn, she has a great voice.
Yeah, Kimberly Locke was NO WHERE near the size of Mandisa.
I would say that Kimberly didn't weight more than 200lbs... but, Mandisa, I would say is like, ummmmmmmmmm, 350lbs.
See, told ya that Sherry would remember her name.
:::>^..^<::: ~*~The Journey is more important than the end or the start~*~ :::>^..^<:::
04-05-2006 06:03 PM
) I remember a few AIs ago when that really good singer that was kinda chubby was in the final 6 or something and EVERY WEEK simon commented on her weight. And this Mandisa girl is way heavier than her and I haven't heard a comment from Simon about it. The women will always have to slim down to be "presentable" to the public and on those magazines and cd covers. It's just lame that it isn't just a singing competition.
