Putting it into perspective, This is the assessment of the job market just before 9/11.
quote:
In Between A Recession And A Recovery
Historically low unemployment and continuing job growth for college educated workers could spur a stronger economy
Released: September 5, 2001
Washington, D.C. — As America continues to endure uneven economic times, layoffs and weakening growth are cause for concern. There is hope, however, for better times in the near future, according to the latest Employment Trends report by the Employment Policy Foundation. The report shows how changing occupational and educational patterns can keep incomes and consumer spending high.
“There is growing concern and uneasiness about the economy,” said EPF President Ed Potter. “But how bad the current economic situation looks depends on your perspective. Compared to a year ago, the short-term outlook is indeed disappointing, but the long-term perspective gives us cause for optimism rather than despair.”
Two factors are helping to keep the economy resilient, Potter said. They are:
Workers who lose jobs find new ones quickly. The unemployment rate remains relatively low, from the long-term perspective, despite slower economic growth, Potter explained. The median duration of unemployment has been 6.7 weeks for 2001, which has remained at or below the 1997-2000 average and significantly below the 8.5 week average from 1991 through 1996.
Today’s unemployment rate of 4.5 percent remains at historic lows for the U.S. economy - less than the 5.6 percent average since 1948 and less than the 5.5 percent average for the booming 1990s.
College educated workers are still in demand. A little recognized milestone was passed in February, when college graduates became the largest single category of workers for the first time in history. For workers age 25 and older, the total number of employed college graduates totaled 35.9 million in July, compared to 32.3 million workers with some college training, 35.5 million workers with only a high school diploma and 11.4 million workers who did not complete high school.
“The strength of the job market for college educated workers is reflected in the strength of job growth in management and professional occupations,” Potter said. “Employment in these occupations grew by 1.1 million despite slower growth between July 2000 and July 2001, while employment in other occupational groups declined by 632,000.”
The continuing expansion of jobs for college graduates, especially in management and professional occupations, is expanding consumer purchasing power faster than the loss of jobs in lower paying job categories is contracting purchasing power, Potter said.
quote:
September Unemployment Report Shows Economy At The Crossroads Prior To Sept. 11
Terrorist attacks likely to push America into short recession, but jobs plentiful for workers with education and skills
Released: October 5, 2001
Washington, D.C. — The September unemployment report released today confirms the direction of the nation’s economy was uncertain at best before the events of Sept. 11. As a result of the terrorist attacks, a short recession is likely, according to the Employment Policy Foundation. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9 percent, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) payroll survey shows jobs decreased by 199,000 last month.
“The unemployment data for September was collected too early to reflect the impact of Sept. 11,” EPF President Ed Potter said. “Recent events undoubtedly will lead the economy into a short period of contraction and readjustment. I expect, however, that current efforts to stimulate the economy through monetary and fiscal policy will help the nation rebound quickly from any recession that does develop.”
Total unemployment in September remained unchanged at around 7 million workers. After recording increases from January to July, the payroll employment survey data shows a total decline of 283,000 jobs since July. Compared to September 2000, however, payroll employment is 120,000 higher.
Payroll employment losses were concentrated in the manufacturing sector, which lost 93,000 jobs in September, Potter said. Overall, the sector has lost 1.1 million jobs since July 2000. With 17.5 million workers, the manufacturing sector accounts for just 13.2 percent of the workforce, the lowest share for this area on record. The banking and real estate sector recorded the only gain in the payroll employment survey with an increase of 14,000 jobs.
In contrast to the payroll survey data, the BLS household survey showed a gain of 788,000 last month. “The wide difference between the two surveys signals that the direction of the economy was not totally clear before the Sept. 11 tragedy,” Potter said.
The labor market continues to place a premium on education and skills, Potter said. Jobs for college graduates over age 25 increased by 130,000 in September. For workers with some college education, jobs increased by 289,000. That compares to a 168,000 decline in jobs for workers with a high school education or less.
“The unemployment rate for people with college degrees is 2.4 percent or just half the rate for the overall workforce,” Potter said.
The median duration of unemployment for workers in September increased slightly to 7.2 weeks from 6.9 in August. However, the numbers of workers who have been unemployment for more than six months actually declined by nearly 10 percent to 787,000 workers.
5.8 percent rate is lower than most expected and points to a more mild recession
Washington, D.C. — The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.8 percent in December, surprising most analysts and suggesting the unemployment rate may peak at a lower level than in past economic contractions, according to the Employment Policy Foundation (EPF). Since the official beginning of the recession, the unemployment rate has increased 1.5 percentage points from the 4.3 percent level in March 2001.
“Over nine previous recessions since 1948, the average increase in the unemployment rate from the beginning of a recession to the subsequent peak unemployment rate has been 3 points,” said EPF President Ed Potter. “The unemployment peak was reached, on average, 14 months after the beginning of the recession. The decline in economic activity during this recession appears to be on the mild side compared to some previous downturns. Based on the data for the mildest four of the past nine recessions, the unemployment rate could peak around 6.3 percent in the spring.”
Although total employment was lower, the decline was smaller than in the previous two months. Among workers age 25 and over, total employment increased by 82,000 in December compared to November, to a total of 114.3 million, suggesting that recovery may already be underway for this core group of the labor force.
For college graduates, the unemployment rate remained at a low 3.1 percent - essentially full employment - showing the continued demand for education and skills in today’s labor market. Most of the unemployment increase was concentrated among workers with the least training and experience - workers over age 25 with less than a high school diploma and workers under age 25 across the education spectrum.
The median duration of unemployment increased to 8.2 weeks from 7.6 weeks in November, which is to be expected for this stage of the recession, Potter said. Further increases in the duration of unemployment can be expected in the coming months and may add further strain on state unemployment insurance systems.
quote:
January Unemployment Takes Positive Turn
Economic outlook brighter as pace of layoffs slows
Released: February 1, 2002
Washington, D.C. — The unemployment rate decreased to 5.6 percent in January, highlighting the declining number of new layoffs and pointing the way to an economy that may be turning from a recession to a recovery, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Employment Policy Foundation (EPF). Workers looking for new jobs because they were laid off decreased by 138,000 to 4.4 million in January.
“Lower unemployment in January definitely is good news,” said EPF President Ed Potter. “The major reason is the slowing pace of layoffs, which also is reflected in the weekly initial unemployment insurance claims data. Over the first four weeks of January, initial UI claims were down 8 percent compared to the same period in December 2001 and down 17 percent compared to the four weeks immediately following Sept. 11.”
Those who have lost jobs comprised 55 percent of the total number of unemployed, Potter said. In addition, about 879,000 people who were looking for work voluntarily quit jobs to find new ones. The remaining job seekers included 2.7 million people who were looking for their first job or were looking for work after being absent from the labor force.
On average, 3.4 million people were receiving weekly unemployment insurance benefits in January or about 77 percent of all workers who lost jobs. For January, EPF estimates that those not receiving benefits included 505,000 who exhausted their 26 weeks of unemployment insurance eligibility, 332,000 people who were only seeking part-time work and 131,000 who were ineligible for other reasons.
“If congressional and Bush administration proposals to extend unemployment insurance benefits another 13 weeks were to take effect today, many of the 505,000 full-time job seekers who have exhausted their 26 weeks of benefits would qualify for additional aid,” Potter said.
As a percentage of the unemployed, those workers looking for jobs for 27 weeks or more (the long-term unemployed) is 13.9 percent, which is less than the overall average of 15.3 percent for the 1990s and significantly less than the high of 21.5 percent reached in 1992, following the last recession. The largest percentage of long-term unemployed since 1948 was 24.9 percent in May 1983.
EPF Employment Snapshot: June 2003
June Unemployment Rate Climbs Due to Jump in Job Seekers
The nation’s civilian labor force increased by 611,000 in June increasing the nation’s unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. The release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the nation’s unemployment rate stood at 6.4 percent for June. The government’s household survey showed employment increasing by 251,000, but that was more than offset by the increase in the size of the labor force.
In June, the nation’s employment level was the highest it had been since March 2001. The increase of 251,000 jobs boosted the employment level to 137,738,000, the highest level since the employment level reached 137,763,000 in March 2001—27 months ago. This increase came despite a slight decrease in the number of payroll jobs—30,000—recorded by the establishment survey in June.
Compared to past recessions, unemployment continues to be relatively low following the recent recession. Increasing unemployment rates at this stage of the post-recession cycle are not unusual. The current unemployment rate of 6.4 percent is lower than the rate recorded at the similar point 27 months after the recessions of 1990 and 1981—7.3 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively. Despite an increase of over 35 million workers in the labor force, the number of individuals unemployed is lower at the this point than at the similar point following the 1981 recession—9,358,000 vs. 9,887,000.
Despite an increase in the number of marginally attached workers in the workforce, the number is still significantly lower than in all three months of the first quarter. The number of workers marginally attached grew to 1,468,000 in June—40,000 higher than in May. However, that number is still significantly lower than in all three months of the first quarter.
The number of discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work fell by 4,000 in June. This slight decline followed on a large increase of 45,000 in May. The BLS may classify workers who are not looking for a job as discouraged for several reasons, including a belief that work is not available. However, their reasoning may not always be accurate. While the economy was strong, between 1994 and January 2001, the number of discouraged workers ranged as high as 600,000—higher than the current level of 478,000. During that time, the number of discouraged workers never fell below 220,000.
The number of workers working part-time, who would prefer to work full-time, declined by 93,000 in June. According to BLS the number of workers working part-time for economic reasons declined to 4,499,000 in June—the lowest level since December 2002. The number is significantly lower than at similar points following the 1990 and 1981 recessions.
quote:
Job Losses in 2001 Recession Second-Lowest Since 1930
Released: August 7, 2003
With the exception of job losses in 1992, following the 1990-91 recession, the 2001 recession experienced the shallowest decline in employment since the 1930s Great Depression. The Employment Policy Foundation’s (EPF) analysis found that average annual employment, as measured by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), declined 0.3 percent in 2001. The 2001 decline compares with employment declines of 0.1 percent in 1992, 1.1 percent in 1991, 1.7 percent in 1982 and 2.1 percent in 1975—the previous four job loss years. Twelve other years between 1930 and 1974 showed declines ranging from 0.4 percent and 9.1 percent in annual average lost employment.
EPF’s analysis of BLS household survey data found that employment in July 2003 was 99.8 percent of its pre-recession peak in March 2001. EPF’s analysis of the household survey data—which is used to calculate the unemployment rate—shows that while the economy lost 1.8 million jobs in 2001 because of the recession, it created 648,000 new jobs in 2002. No clear trend has emerged in 2003, with employment hovering around 137.5 million jobs.
EPF’s Chief Economist Ron Bird said, “The 2001 recession was relatively shallow and short-lived. While the economy has grown and created new jobs since the end of the recession, it has not expanded at a rate that creates jobs for all the new entrants to the labor force. This has raised the level of competition for available jobs.” Bird expressed optimism that expected stronger expansion in the economy would create jobs at a faster pace helping to ease unemployment.
EPF’s analysis of the BEA data also showed an increase in employment in 2002 of 1.2 percent—just slightly below the long-term average, since 1930, of 1.56 percent. In recent years, employment growth fluctuations have moderated and become more stable. Since 1992, the peak growth was 2.6 percent with no declines greater than 0.3 percent. Over the pervious 20 years growth peaked at 4.8 percent with the largest decline being 1.7 percent. Fluctuations in the 1930s, 40s and 50s were larger with a range from 9.9 percent to -9.1 percent.
Labor Day 2003: Annual Report Examines 150 Years of Realties, Challenges and Opportunities in the Workplace
Released: August 26, 2003
Despite the realities of the recent economic downturn, the American workplace has experienced 75 years of advancement—compared to its 1929 level, employment is 3 times higher today and real per capita personal income is almost 5 times higher. As the economy recovers from the 2001 recession—deepened by the terrorist attacks in September 2001 and the continuing war on terrorism—the American workplace faces distinct challenges and opportunities. The Employment Policy Foundation’s (EPF) eighth-annual American Workplace Report, The American Workplace 2003: Realities, Challenges and Opportunities, examines 75 years of workplace history and the possibilities that lie ahead for the next 75 years.
Realities. While the recession and lingering labor market weakness was difficult, historically it was relatively mild. Annual average employment fell in only one year and registered the second-lowest annual percentage decline of any recessionary job loss year since 1930. As the economy moved toward recovery—evidence shows that the economy was poised to rebound in August 2001—the new reality of terrorism provided an added pressure on businesses and the economy as a whole. By 2006, EPF estimates the annual cost of corporate IT security spending related to potential economic terrorism at $155 billion—a 135 percent increase since 2001
quote:
EPF Employment Snapshot: November 2003
Total Employment Jumps, Unemployment Falls
The Employment Policy Foundation's analysis of the November employment situation report, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, found further confirmation that the economic recovery is accelerating and significant job creation is beginning.
Unemployment rate falls despite large number of labor market reentrants. The nation's unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, even as the labor force increased by 484,000-equivalent to annual growth of nearly 3.9 percent. The strong growth of the labor force suggests that job seekers are returning from the sidelines because of improved perceptions of employment prospects. Total employment measured by the household survey increased 589,000 to 138.6 million, and unemployed ranks declined by 105,000. The total employment is now above the level recorded before the recent recession began in March 2001. The employment to population ratio rose to 62.4 percent as the number of persons age 16 and over were not in the labor force declined by 244,000 to 75.0 million.
Total payroll employment continues to rise. Employment rose by 57,000 in November as measured by the establishment survey of non-farm payroll employment. The November increase, on top of further revisions to September and October's data, brought November's employment total to 130.2 million.
EPF Employment Snapshot: August 2004
Payroll Employment Growth Accelerates as Unemployment Rate Falls
Payrolls grew for the twelfth straight month in August, marking the strongest twelve months of payroll employment growth since December 2000. Since August 2003, payrolls have increased by 1.7 million, while the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.1 to 5.4 percent—the lowest level since October 2001.
August’s increase in payroll employment was the largest monthly gain since May. Payroll employment, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Establishment Survey, was 203,000 higher in August 2004 than the July preliminary employment total. The August report included an upward revision of 59,000 in the previously reported July total plus a preliminary estimate of 144,000 new jobs added in August.
Labor market recovery is still on track. While the June and July data still represent a slow down from the exceptional growth rate during the March–May period, it was not as significant as previously reported. The July employment report of a relatively small 32,000-job gain between June and July prompted widespread concern that the economic recovery was faltering. The revised numbers published by BLS today show that the July gain was over twice as large as originally reported. In addition to the July revisions, BLS also added an additional 18,000 jobs to the June total that had not been included in previous reports.
The August preliminary payroll total suggests that the employment recovery may be accelerating. The preliminary report of 144,000 new jobs in August was nearly twice the revised gain of 73,000 in July. For the past three months payroll job gains have totaled 313,000. Since August 2003, payroll employment has increased 1.7 million. At 131.5 million in August, payroll employment is higher than any month since September 2001. If the recent June through August pace (104,000 per month) of job growth continues, the payroll employment total will reach a record total of 132.5 million in June 2005—surpassing the pre-recession record of March 2001. If job growth accelerates to the average rate achieved since January 2004, the record would be surpassed as early as February 2005.
August’s unemployment rate falls further below the long-term average. The employment recovery is mirrored in the decline of the unemployment rate. At 5.4 percent in August, the unemployment rate has declined in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate is below the 1948-2004 historical average of 5.6 percent, and well below the recent recession cycle peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003. In August the number of persons unemployed declined by 174,000.
Employment in manufacturing industries continued to improve in August. Payrolls in the manufacturing sector increased by 22,000 in August. The gain is the sixth gain in the last seven months as the sector begins to shake off the manufacturing employment losses that began in 1998. Manufacturing employment has grown by 107,000 jobs since February 2004. Over the last twelve months, manufacturing has seen the largest year-over-year growth in payrolls since September 1998. During that period, the twelve months ended in August were just the fourth 12-month period to show growth in the manufacturing sector. Three small 12-month gains were recorded in the summer of 2000.
10-15-2004 10:03 PM
