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Dekka00
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post #31  quote:

it's looking like Bush is gonna win

Old Post 11-03-2004 04:35 AM
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nikiTa
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post #32  quote:

C'est la vie.

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post #33  quote:

It ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Old Post 11-03-2004 04:48 AM
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esskay
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post #34  quote:

The fat lady just sang in Florida.

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post #35  quote:

4 more years

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adityamahesh
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post #36  quote:

quote:
sowhatsthetruth said this in post #33 :
It ain't over til the fat lady sings.



quote:
Sean Kelly said this in post #34 :
The fat lady just sang in Florida.





M.


Old Post 11-03-2004 05:09 AM
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post #37  quote:

quote:
Sean Kelly said this in post #34 :
The fat lady just sang in Florida.


And pretty much in Ohio. It was fun while it lasted.

M.


Old Post 11-03-2004 05:17 AM
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post #38  quote:

The Ohio Secretary of State says she won't declare it until ALL the votes are counted....
that's expected to happen at 3 or 4 am.

As predicted, whoever wins Ohio wins the election.


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gaboman
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post #39  quote:

Could I ask, why does Bush get 1 vote for Maine and Kerry gets the other 3?

Old Post 11-03-2004 05:57 AM
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post #40  quote:

Okay, foxnews just changed it. Kerry got all 4 (do they know I'm watching them? )

Old Post 11-03-2004 06:00 AM
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nikiTa
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post #41  quote:

Maine has a split electoral process based on popular vote.
The states decide how they disperse electoral votes.
Most states give the winner of the popular vote all the electoral votes.
Not Maine.
It's based on regions and their popular vote total in those areas.

We just had that idea struck down against an amendment in Colorado.
There is one other state besides Maine which has split electoral votes, but I am not sure who it is.


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schmiggens
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post #42  quote:

CNN:
Bush @ 249 & 51%
Kerry @ 195 & 48%

But 249 + 195 = 444
Bush's 58% of 444 is 226 not 249.
Kerry's 48% of 444 is 213 not 195.

Whats the go?

Also (stupid question) what are the numbers for? I undertsand the percentages, but the 195 and 249 - is that for individual seats won or states won or what?


Old Post 11-03-2004 06:12 AM
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post #43  quote:

quote:
sowhatsthetruth said this in post #38 :
The Ohio Secretary of State says she won't declare it until ALL the votes are counted....
that's expected to happen at 3 or 4 am.

As predicted, whoever wins Ohio wins the election.


Bush is gonna take Ohio....

Kerry didnt get the percentage of votes needed in Columbus that he needed...the rest of the cities are Bush oriented.


Old Post 11-03-2004 06:13 AM
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post #44  quote:

Fox have already declaired Bush winner in Ohio

the 51% is of the TOTAL votes, not the electoral votes, I think, schmiggens


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esskay
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post #45  quote:

Fox has been jumping the gun a bit on several states - I don't like that. Ohio hasn't reported and indeed it is VERY frigging close, down to 30K votes there. I expect the election goes to GWB, but Fox should not try to make themselves look like they've got information before anyone else because they don't - it's irresponsible reporting.

Old Post 11-03-2004 06:29 AM
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post #46  quote:

quote:
schmiggens said this in post #42 :
CNN:
Bush @ 249 & 51%
Kerry @ 195 & 48%

... what are the numbers for?


Each state is assigned a certain number of "electoral votes" based on the population of the state. If the popular vote in the state determines whch candidate receives ALL of that state's electoral votes. The candidate with the most electoral votes becomes President. The percentages you are seeing are reflective of the popular vote - the vote of the people, not the electoral votes. It's possible for 51% of the popular vote to affect 100% of the electoral votes, so the numbers never align. (for example, if 51% of the popular vote in EVERY state was for Bush, then push would have received 100% of the electoral votes.)


Old Post 11-03-2004 06:33 AM
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post #47  quote:

I noticed that too Sean. CNN haven't even reported on Washington yet, however Fox have given it to Kerry... Same deal with Ohio and New Hampshire. And a couple of other states throughout the night.

They also already have an article on Bush being 1 vote away from continuing as president


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post #48  quote:

New Mexico is in the bag for Bush.. it all comes down to Ohio.

Old Post 11-03-2004 06:37 AM
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post #49  quote:

Yeah, Kerry looks like he's got Michigan. According to CNN's site, Kerry still needs 100 thousand for Ohio. Don't know if he can pull that one off.

Old Post 11-03-2004 06:44 AM
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post #50  quote:

Fox was bragging at about 6pm mst about how they were the last news agency to report the Florida change of tide in 2000.

They tried to emphasize how they wouldn't report a win for any state until complete confirmation....so much for their bragging and bloviating.


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post #51  quote:

Fox have just put Kerry as the winner in Minnesota (10 votes there). No one else has yet...

Old Post 11-03-2004 06:58 AM
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post #52  quote:

BTW, I'm feeding the data at the top of this thread from yahoo - I don't know who their source is, but they may be using multiple sources and compiling their own data.

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post #53  quote:

Ah, Yahoo, they've done Minnesota now too. CNN are lagging, perhaps. Unless Yahoo are using fox as one of their sources...

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post #54  quote:

I believe that the states can call the winner as soon as the margin is greater than the percentage remaining. That way they don't actually have to count all the votes in order to call the winner (they can report it faster), and then they can catch up on the counting for historical records at their leisure.

Ex: if a state has 15% (R) and 55% (D), the remaining percentage of votes is 30%, but the margin is 40%. So even if all 30% of the remaining votes went to (R), (D) would still win. So they can call the winner at 70%. Theoretically this could happen as soon as 50.1% of the votes have been accounted for in a landslide, but in most cases it probably occurs much closer to being a complete reporting count.


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post #55  quote:

Yahoo, CNN, FOX, Is there not an official counter?

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post #56  quote:

^ good question schmiggens... gotta look for that one now.

CNN are reporting Ohio at the moment as "too close to call" which will probably piss Fox off to no end


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post #57  quote:

Election officials are official, but the news media try to beat them to the punch. Whoever is accurate "first" is better - it's all about the ratings. Stupid crap.

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post #58  quote:

there are only 400.000 votes unaccounted coming from Cincy area and it's traditionally a republican area.

Old Post 11-03-2004 07:18 AM
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post #59  quote:

Indeed. Fox can come out tomorrow and say "we brought you the election results first. Before the electoral officials even could."

Doesn't seem to be an official site for the vote counting. At least not according to google.


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post #60  quote:

Ohio votes (96%)
(R) 2,673,882
(D) 2,559,802

Margin: 114,080

if 5,233,684 votes so far = 96%
then 5,451,754 = 100%
therefore 218,070 votes remain to be accounted for.

As you can see, the remaining ballots to be considered are more than enough to not only even out, but possibly flip it to Kerry's favor and he could take it.

Thus it is, indeed, "too close to call" for anyone with half a brain. Fox is blowing it.

My R/D/% numbers above I've sourced from Foxnews.com. The rest is simple math.

[edit] correction, they were foxnews.com numbers, not CNN[/edit]


Old Post 11-03-2004 07:20 AM
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