| Senate Balance of Power: GOP 48, Dem 49, Toss-Up 3
rasmussenreports.com
1 hour, 25 minutes ago
On the final Friday of Election 2006, Democrats take the lead for the first time in the race for control of the U.S. Senate. Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching two states (New Jersey and Montana from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat"). We now rate 49 Senate seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat, 48 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and three as Toss-Ups. We polled in each of the Toss-Up States (Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia) on Thursday night and this may lead to further shifts in the Senate Balance of Power ratings. (see State-by-State Summary).
Both Montana and New Jersey had been listed as "Leans Democrat" for most of Election 2006. However, late surges by the GOP candidates pushed both temporarily into the Toss-Up category. Three other races are also currently in the "Leans Democrat" column--Rhode Island, Ohio, and Maryland.
Democrats have to win each of the leaners and two of the three Toss-Ups to reach the magic number of 51 and gain control of the Senate. If the Democrats win the leaners and just one Toss-Up, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.
Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.
History of Changes
On October 30, we shifted Washington from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat"
On October 20, we shifted the Montana Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up"
On October 16, we shifted the Virginia Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up"
On October 13, 2006, we shifted the Tennessee Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up"
On October 10, we shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."
On October 9, we shifted Michigan and Minnesota from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."
On October 2, we shifted Tennessee from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat."
On September 25, we shifted Washington from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."
On September 18, Montana, Rhode Island, and Ohio all shifted from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat."
On September 12, Washington shifted from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."
On September 8, Tennessee moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up."
On September 6, New Jersey shifted from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up."
On September 5, Rhode Island moved from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up."
On the first day of September, Rasmussen Reports changed the Minnesota Senate race from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."
On August 25, we shifted Pennsylvania from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat." Santorum remains the nation's most vulnerable incumbent, but he has closed to within single digits.
On August 24, Washington moved from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."
On August 18, in the wake of controversial remarks by Senator George Allen, Virginia changed from "Republican" to "Leans Republican."
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
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