Flu pandemic could kill 150 million, UN warns

Medicine & Biotech Forum

I wasn't really sure whether this belonged in the Science/medicine/technology, health/fitness, or breaking news forums. I guess this story covers all three areas, so "breaking News" is where I'm posting it.

Sep 29, 2005 — By Irwin Arieff

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday.

Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.

If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.

The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.

Some governments and international organizations have already started joining forces to begin preparations.

U.S. President George W. Bush unveiled a plan at the United Nations this month under which global resources and expertise would be pooled to fight bird flu, and Washington is hosting an October 7-8 planning meeting.

Canada is hosting an October 25-26 meeting of high-level officials in Ottawa, and the WHO has called for a November 7-8 meeting in Geneva to coordinate needed funding.

66 DEATHS SINCE 2003

So far, the H5N1 virus has mainly infected humans who were in close contact with infected birds and has killed 66 people in four Asian nations since late 2003.

Millions of birds have been destroyed, causing estimated losses of $10 billion to $15 billion to the poultry industry, with the heaviest losses in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. The virus has also been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

I just heard that horrific news one change the number is out of sync its one half of what they first said but even that is another toltal disaster for the /Scientists to face. There has been a vacine develped aND FROM l:OU dOBBS ON cNN IT IS TO BE GIVEN STRAIGHT WAY TO the needy who as always are in third world countries and poor.

Sick of this I am turning the news off and watch Jeff Corwin and Animal planet its at least more conducive to my good mental health

D

the idea of a pandemic scares the hell out of me. My son has severe asthma, and people like that do not survive these flus. I pray that the scientists and doctors put their focus on this issue.

Delta:

I've heard about this a few weeks ago...

I'm wondering: Why in the hell is there such a casual release of potentially alarming information to the public lately? I'm not saying that this should be contained and then when something happens, we say, "Oh, we knew about it, and we were working on it, but we felt that the situation was under control...", but it seems like there is a lot of free-flying news about this thing over here that could kill us, or that thing over there that could wipe out a third of the U.S. population, etc....

My thoughts on this run in two directions:

1. I'm not into living my life in fear. Being responsible and aware; yes. Living in fear of whatever possibly could take me out of the world; no. That means, I hate watching the news and I realize what it can do to those who watch too much of it. CNN is poison, and a catalyst for paranoia. I won't watch it for more than 5 minutes a week, if even that much.

2. If the virus occurs, there's very little I'd be able to do to stop it if it happens to find a way to survive in my city's climate. I still have to work, eat, sleep, be around other people, etc. I could only plan how I'd change the things I do today in order to minimize my risk of infection, but until the economy goes through a revolutionary free-for-all transformation, I'll still have to do the same things that I do now. The only really major change will be how we try to keep our daughter safe.

I hate CNN.

Another poster posted this same issue last Nov. 13, 2004. We keep hearing about this shortly after big news is over. Remember what happened last Nov 2nd?

They'll keep bringing such fear tactics into play after big news like the hurricanes is dying down....gotta fill the void somehow.

Look there are a million and one ways to kill....and only a few ways to defend yourself.

1) Stop feeding on the news...the stress alone kills.
2) Live peaceably and go about your business.
3) Trust God
and
#4) Don't get vaccines for manmade diseases. There is a reason for such bird flus....the population is out of control....we cannot live on the resources available...and a few people are losing profits based on paying out to poor and massive populations. If I were a betting woman, I'd say this bird flu came out of a biowarfare lab somewhere...and the vaccine won't be any better. The vaccine could very easily target a certain blood type, whatever and boom! you're gone before you can say, "How'd you like it?"

Told ya, there are a million and one ways to kill...just relax and enjoy your life....while you still got it.

http://www.inreview.com/showthread....u%2A#post486443

Government skippy on bird flu

It might happen it might not we have been warned about the possibility of a world wide pandemic since the first SARS outbreak still has not happend now that is either because we have been careful, lucky personally I think it is a little of both. Most government are now stockpiling vaccines that do work and there are other cintingency plans that all goverments will have had and will be currently reviewing.
If it's gonna happen it's gonna happen and the only thing you can do is try and survive because if it gets real bad then you are on your own I can guarntee it.

The fear factor...

FEAR LESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is scary to realize that in this day and age we are still at the mercy of influenza and like viruses.


TWIS, I will miss you. Things wax and wane on message boards. I hope you will pop in from time to time. Things may interest you again.

Wild birds with H5 flu virus found in Canada

CTV.ca News Staff

Several wild birds carrying H5 flu viruses have been found in Quebec and Manitoba, officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced Monday.

"Preliminary testing has identified H5 influenza in 28 samples from Quebec, and five from Manitoba," Jim Clark of the CFIA told a news conference.

However, officials don't know yet if the birds have the lethal H5N1 subtype of the avian flu; there are believed to be nine different H5 subtypes.

And he noted that the virus does not appear to be killing the birds.

"The evidence we have observed strongly indicates that these healthy birds were not infected with the same virus that is currently present in Asia," he said.

Health officials in Winnipeg conducting tests on the H5-infected birds won't know whether they have H5N1 until mid-week.

The birds are believed to be among thousands that have been tested in Canada.

Even if the Canadian birds are carrying the H5N1 virus, it does not mean they are necessarily related to the viruses behind the poultry outbreaks in southeast Asia.

"It is important to clarify that the avian influenza virus is not new to wild birds," Clark said. "Experts worldwide know that this virus, in one form or another, has circulated among wild birds around the world for hundreds, or perhaps even for thousands of years."

Indeed, it's not the first time that avian viruses have been found in North America. For more than a decade, parts of Mexico suffered through an outbreak of the H5N2 avian flu in poultry operations.

And last year in Canada, testing revealed that the avian flu found on a goose and duck farm near Abbotsford, B.C. was not the deadly H5 variety. Instead, the CFIA said that the 37,000 geese on the Fraser Valley Duck and Goose Ltd. farm were exposed to the H6 avian influenza virus.

The outbreak caused no major human health problems, but forced the culling of some 16 million poultry.

So far, the outbreaks in Asia have infected 121 people and caused more than 60 deaths in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia.

With the strain crawling through Europe as migrating fowl fly westward, there are mounting fears that the virus could mutate into one that can easily spread among humans and thus prompt a global pandemic.

Earlier in the month, Australia lifted a ban on live bird imports from Canada, after officials in Ottawa provided compelling evidence proving the country was free of H5N1.

Australian officials announced the ban after three imported racing pigeons from Canada tested positive for bird flu antibodies. The pigeons, which were later destroyed, tested positive for bird flu antibodies while being held in quarantine in the southern city of Melbourne.

That means the three birds weren't infected with avian flu, but rather that they had fought off a previous infection.

Antibodies help strengthen the immune system and, unlike the viruses they fight, aren't infectious.

Tell them to get the right information or Shut the Hell up

Now its my turn

D (I am hardly a racist but I am sick to death of having to Push 1 for english. Everytime I call anyone say like credit card Companies i always Press one for English.

Hell they are the racists if Ihave to listren to Espanol Spanish why don't they inlude the rest of Americans? We are a poporri of ethnic backgrouunds.

I am filing suit cause they don't include French or Islam or Muslim or the rest of Americans. Shut the Hell up. How many Spanish peeps are you all going to find in Nashville Tenn?

Then while I am venting ,why do they make us enter our credit card numbers before they even ask us if we want to speak Spainish or English . Finally get a real person on the damn phone and the first thing they ask is what is your credit card number? What is your favorite pets name, What is your great
Aunt"s three times removed nickname

What the hell is wrong with you all. I know they trace and "may record this conversation" every minute so why can't they keep track of my number. Its so darn tiny Ihave to change glasses three times to read the "security # on the back.

These people whom are happy to take our money each month and thats fair but get it straight My name is not spelled like Perry Como. It is not co max or comeoou. How aBOUT ME GOING TO THE LAWYER AND HAVING IT CHANGED TO JONES?
-
Then peeps would say Jone - es Oh all of you "Customer Service Reps need a course in serving the costumer. I would say so

SHUTTHEHELLUP--- tOO FAST FOR YOU? SHUT.... THE .... HELL.... UP!

D

d

And I thought the SARS mania was ridiculous.

There is no more risk this year, vs. last year, vs. five years ago, five years from now or any year in particular, of a serious epidemic. They are acting as though there is something novel about other species having flu viruses that could be bad if humans managed to transmit them to other humans. Um ... no. There have been species-specific viruses pretty much ever since there were species.

Of course if a new virus enters a vulnerable population by any means - whether from a modern traveler landing on an island which has never been exposed to viruses routine in the outside world or though mutation that allows a virus which previously only affected other species to be transferred among some other species - it can be a bad thing. The danger lies in the fact that you have a population with no previous exposure and therefore, no immunity or resistance. The virus itself might be minor or lethal; the problem is that since there's no population resistance, lots of individuals will get it.

But there's nothing different right now. Sure, there are traveling birds with viruses, just like there have always been. Birds have lots of viruses that they share amongst themselves that so far have not mutated into a form that can be transferred from human to human - nothing new in that. Do you realize that there's also a flu virus hitting kennels hard right now because it's apparently an equine virus that only recently gained the ability to transfer between dogs? Not hearing much about that, huh?

But I'm no more worried about "dog flu" than I am of "bird flu" because the chances that it will jump species this year are just as minimal as any other species-specific virus doing so in any other year. Of course eventually there will be some new pandemic virus. Some plans need to be in place by the organizations whose business it is to monitor these things. But running around in a panic as though it's happening next week is pretty pointless.

Interesting post, Phalaris.

I don't think anyone is panicking yet, and I don't think anyone really expects that this will sweep the entire world this year. I think the warnings are being tossed out there, although, like you said, where there is a virus, the human population develops antibodies, but sometimes a virus mutates into a variant of the original strain and attacks when the human antibodies aren't prepared for a stronger and angrier variant of the original strain.

Who is to say that it will actually be the H5N1 strain that is predicted to be the next pandemic? It could very well be a variant - a mutation that no one is expecting. I think it is dangerous to have faith that these things will just go away, or believe that it won't materialize into something that poses a threat to the human population.

The fact remains, when there is the same viral infection that is causing the death of people on different continents, the world has to be notified, much like with the SARS "mania". So, it turned out to be nothing, and only 800 people, worldwide, died from it, but it was still of utmost importance to let the world know that SARS was floating through the un-bordered air.

Like the hype or not, the warnings are out there. When more humans start to become infected in two years, five years, or ten years, I hope no one will ever say that they weren't warned that it was a possibility, and possibly on its way to becoming a pandemic.

I think this "pandemic" is merely Bush's attempt at gaining in the approval rating polls. His approval rating sucks right now....

And if he can appear on TV like some superhero thwarting this dangerous and inevitable dilemma upon the United States....well, I think his advisors and administration are counting on the US populace falling for it....

But there are those who...

Besides, if this such a big deal....and as far as I have heard that hasn't been a chicken to human infection has there? And also, is there a single case where another human has infected another human with this bird flu? Can anyone enlighten me on these things?

Well, besides if this is such a big deal....why are we still importing chickens from Asia, why are they not killing every chicken in Asia, and why are they allowing more chickens to be hatched?

Don't we have enough chicken farmers in America to feed the populace? Why do we even need to import foreign chickens? I mean really.

Animal to human viral infections are pretty rare...unless they've mutated in a lab somewhere, if you catch my drift. Unless you believe AIDS came from an African green monkey.

I think people are counting their chickens before they hatch here.

Besides, who sleeps or habitates with chickens in close places?

Baking or boiling a dead chicken.....

SWTT,

There has been a small number of humans who were infected, and inevitably died from the avian flu (in Asia). I believe the number of human deaths are no greater than 40, but please don't quote me on that number. I am a little dizzy right now. No, not from the avian flu.

I don't know about Bush's attempt to gain approval ratings. The last time I checked, most of us in Canada don't care what his approval ratings are.

Yes, there has been bird to human transmission, and human to human transmission, but only in rare cases.

I don't know why anyone would import chicken for food anyway. I don't eat those dirty, but cute, little birds!



Epidemiology of Avian Flu

Well, remember if there are infected wild or domesticated chickens flying or clucking in Canada, there is this invisible barrier at the border keeping all us Americans safe.

No worries.

By the way, I would like to say that it is not just poultry that is becoming infected - It is all birds.

Although the human health risks scare me a little, I am more concerned about my birds getting sick.

I am a bird mom, and a darn good one, too!

A world without birds would be a horrible place.

Especially meadowlarks in the spring....

or the love "coo coo" of the dove.

But if you continue to isolate your birds...which is the way to go with domesticated indoor birds...they'll be fine.

The good thing that has been revealed is that when ( All the specialists worryingly say when not if. Anyone noticed that ) that when H5N1 mutates to allow human to human transfer the chemists will be able to make a vaccine within hours not days. These chemists have also said they will lease out the ingredients to make the vaccine to other chemists so that the markets may well be flooded with the cure very quickly. Of course we have to wait until some poor sole gets this flu, dies and the for doctors to agree thay had mutated H5N1, then the corpse of cells from the corpse have to go the chemists. So a few hours seems rather hopeful to me.

BEIJING, China (AP) -- China on Wednesday reported its first three confirmed human cases of bird flu as the government raced to vaccinate billions of chickens, ducks and other poultry in a massive effort to stop the spread of the virus.

The Health Ministry confirmed two human cases in the central province of Hunan and one in the eastern province of Anhui, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Both areas reported outbreaks in poultry in the past month.

Experts are especially worried about the potential for bird flu to spread and mutate in China because of its vast poultry flocks and their close contact with people.

It also is a major migration route for wild fowl, which experts say might be spreading the virus.

China has reported 11 outbreaks in chickens and ducks over the past month nationwide, prompting authorities to destroy millions of birds in an effort to contain the virus. The government also announced an ambitious effort Tuesday to vaccinate all the country's more than 14 billion farm birds.

Xinhua did not elaborate on the human cases, but Chinese and World Health Organization experts were studying the case of a 12-year-old girl and her brother, both of whom fell ill after their village in Hunan suffered a bird flu outbreak in poultry. The girl died but her brother recovered.

Chinese officials initially said the girl, her brother and a schoolteacher who all fell ill had tested negative for bird flu. But the government reopened the investigation and asked WHO for assistance.

WHO experts traveled to Hunan this week.

The government had not previously disclosed there were any suspected human cases in Anhui, where an Oct. 20 outbreak in the city of Tiancheng killed about 550 birds.

Experts also are testing a poultry worker who fell ill in the northeastern province of Liaoning, which has suffered four outbreaks. All farm birds in the province were ordered vaccinated early this month, said Fu Jingwu, deputy director of the provincial Animal Health Supervision and Management Bureau.

He said the effort covered 320 million birds. The province also has destroyed more than 15 million chickens, ducks and other birds.

Also Wednesday, the State Council, which is China's Cabinet, discussed enacting regulations on bird flu prevention, epidemic monitoring and emergency contingency plans, state television said.

The council also said it would offer tax breaks and subsidies to help counter the effects of bird flu outbreaks.

Copyright 2005 The Associated Press

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