Long-term Predictions for Iraq

Iraq Forum

I think that in the next few generations we are going to see an increasingly secular Iraq. It will probably be highly militaristic until the young Iraqi kids that are alive today get old enough to make changes and then the main religion of Iraq will be super-liberal Atheism.


the bulk of the younger generation will probably see Islam as an out-dated concept and associate it with "the Old Iraq." There will be a prevailing attitude of "out with the old, in with the new."

A secular future does seem like the best way forward for Iraq but I doubt this will prevent future trouble or conflicts because war is nearly always about strategic interests and control over those interests and no amount of secularism is going to change that because Iraq is an enormous prize that everyone has their eye on.

China is having energy problems so they are going to want a bigger influence in the region and will probably support political sides that oppose US interests in favour of their own.

Iraq as ever will be piggy in the middle of the great powers, which will continue to play into the hands of the militant religious fundamentalists in the region and so both Iraq and to a much lesser extent the West will have to live with a certain amount of violence for a long time.

Very long term, the oil will run out and then Iraq will finally be left alone.

as far as I know, in Islam, "Heaven" is a place where you are allowed to sin. Orgies and booze and whatnot.

The Iraqi youth, and particularly after the Iraqi youth has children and grandchildren, will realize that they do not have to die to participate in this garbage. As Western-style education becomes more prominent in the coming generations, Islam will be probably be replaced with some sort of Neopagan, politically correct, "anything-goes-if-it-makes-you-feel-good" religion.

The people who say Islam is dying are probably right. But these people were probably hoping it would be replaced with Christianity. Too bad. It's gonna be replaced with Super-lib Atheism (blended with New Age Pagan Spirituality).

Maybe if we actually acted like Christians there would be more hope. But instead we try to force our ways upon people with guns. Oh well.





if you don't know what I'm talking about read the Gospel of Luke Chapter 22 Verses 47-52.

Islam will not die, it will evolve just like Christianity did.
It's a matter of sorting out extremists from realists. After all this is the 21st century. You can have a better quality of life but, you have to stand up for your ideals. What percentage of Mulsims actually believe in the 72 virgin thing? What do women get when they die? I am sure there are the female perspective on Islam that we don't hear about. It's really not all one sided for the murder of the infideds.

When the oil runs out of Iraq, you and everyone you know will have been dead for a hundred years.

Christianity didn't evolve, it just lost it's power to control in the West and the US. We affluent and comfortable westerners just didn't need it as a crutch anymore and the people turned their back on the church until it became mostly irrelevant (maybe not so much in the South of US but certainly in much of Europe).

But that was then and now it seems to me militant Christianity (or the right) is on the rise again, especailly in the USA. In fact the right and even the far-right and fascism is on the rise in most Westernised nations.

Could be because the rich know that resourses are getting scarse and so the big powers are making their slow and subtle moves and war is one way of dividing up the the cake.

Once again your prophetic blather is idiotic.

Indeed, USA1 ....

Dekka00: That is a fairly simplistic way to look at it. Religion and culture and politics and sociology are all intertwined and fairly complex. I think USA1 actually is on the right track. The questions he is asking the youth of Iraq (perhaps the entire Middle East) will also begin asking. Which will inevitably resulting in the demise/evolution of Islam.

There's no reaon to believe that religion is on the wane in the world. No reason to think it is losing it's grip in the Middle East. The president of the US is a born again Christian.

In Europe I suppose Christianity is pretty much dead.

But the right has never been more popular, and the right employ religion as a political tool. Good example: Bush's appeal to the religous states in America.

Freedom and religion were at opposite ends of the spectrum. The old Catholic church in Europe is comparable to Islamo-fascism in the Middle East.

True. But why do you think it is on the wane or could start to wane. In Iraq the majority voted for the Shiite clerics not the secular Allawi. Muslim's right now feel very much targetted. This is more likely to push people towards a religion. Like I say religion and intolerance seems to be on the rise in Britain and Europe. The big scape goat today (rather than jews) is any immigrants and asylum seekers (refugee's as they were once called). Hostility towards ethnic groups is incredibly high in Britain and getting worse.

While Protestants and Catholics have extreme philosphical and religious differences, the right to believe in those differences keeps us from killing each other, or really having any animosity towards each other whatsoever outside of a debate on forums such as these.

Or America is such a land of plenty people don't need to kill each other (although you do have an incredibly high murder rate for a developed country). Try to imagine the US as poor as Sudan. How accomadating do you think people would be towards each other if they had the vote but no food to feed their children?

The glue here is Americanism. We believe that every human being has a right to believe whatever they want.

America had massive segragation until just a few decades ago. Looking at America from the outside, you don't come across as a partcularly tolerant or peaceloving nation, certainly not like the Dutch. Right now that glue must be under strain as the country was virtually divided over the Bush policies in the Middle East.

Americanism has a Code of Chivalry as well. Oft-refered-to as "Cowboyism" or "Superheroism." To fight for a good cause is considered one of the best things an American can do.

Sounds like a Hollywood invention.

Extreme Americanists believe that it is our responsibility as the sole superpower to spread freedom across the globe. And that is indeed a noble goal.

Humans have great capacity for self delusion and rarely act on anything but self interest (if you look deep enough). Spreading freedom through war was what the British did so well. Hitler never thought what he was doing was either wrong or bad. He thought he was doing the wolrd a favour, making the world a better place. I'm sure Stalin only wanted to modernise the Soviet Union. And Saddam Hussein probably beleived he was making Iraq into a greatest nation in the Gulf. None of these people saw themselves as bad. Doing bad things is very easy to justify. It just takes a bit of juggling with a few ideas.

Iraqi youth growing up today: will grow up around increasing quality of life, hindered mostly by violence from Islamic Extremists. They will grow sick and tired of it.

It also depends on what we do. The west has been in the Gulf for a 100 years. We're not Florence Nightingale. We've been there for strategic interests. Does anyone seriously think these interests are any less interesting now?

They will grow up with such Babylonification around them, there will be no hope for Islam (or Christianity either).

It's a good scenario. Who could disagree?

There's no reaon to believe that religion is on the wane in the world. No reason to think it is losing it's grip in the Middle East. The president of the US is a born again Christian.
I do not believe that religion is on the wane... I believe that Islam is on the wane. Well not yet, but when it goes, it will go quickly.

But the right has never been more popular, and the right employ religion as a political tool. Good example: Bush's appeal to the religous states in America.

I agree, and I find this very aggravating. Before this election, I was having a chat with one of my best friends, and expressed my distaste for Mr. Bush. He said "Oh no, don't tell me you're going liberal on me."

As if one's political affiliation has anything whatsoever to do with one's relationship with God.

I tell people I'm a Christian, they assume I'm a Bush-supporter.
I tell people I hate Bush, they assume I'm an atheist.

It's sickening.

Dekka: Freedom and religion were at opposite ends of the spectrum. The old Catholic church in Europe is comparable to Islamo-fascism in the Middle East.

H@ts: True. But why do you think it is on the wane or could start to wane. In Iraq the majority voted for the Shiite clerics not the secular Allawi. Muslim's right now feel very much targetted. This is more likely to push people towards a religion. Like I say religion and intolerance seems to be on the rise in Britain and Europe. The big scape goat today (rather than jews) is any immigrants and asylum seekers (refugee's as they were once called). Hostility towards ethnic groups is incredibly high in Britain and getting worse.
If you take a look at my predictions, it is over 2 generations. You and I will be old men when we see the Middle East become Atheist.
The next decade or two, we will see a more moderate, watered-down, tolerant version of Islam.

There will be extremists for a while longer, but I guarantee you the Muslims who are growing up today will become sick and tired of the religious BS.

Dekka: The glue here is Americanism. We believe that every human being has a right to believe whatever they want.

H@ts: America had massive segragation until just a few decades ago. Looking at America from the outside, you don't come across as a partcularly tolerant or peaceloving nation, certainly not like the Dutch. Right now that glue must be under strain as the country was virtually divided over the Bush policies in the Middle East.

My point was from a religious standpoint. Racially, yes, there is still a fair degree of de facto segregation in America. However, when (not if) America falls as a superpower, and the economy isn't as great, the tension will not be between Protestants or Catholics, or between Black and White, but between Poor and Rich. This will probably occur around the same time that the MIddle East sheds itself of Islam.

Dekka: Americanism has a Code of Chivalry as well. Oft-refered-to as "Cowboyism" or "Superheroism." To fight for a good cause is considered one of the best things an American can do.

H@ts: Sounds like a Hollywood invention.
the scary thing is, Hollywood is only reflecting a cultural thing. It goes much deeper than Hollywood. The fact that American fat-asses sit around and watch TV half their waking lives certainly helps indoctrinate our youth though.


Humans have great capacity for self delusion and rarely act on anything but self interest (if you look deep enough). Spreading freedom through war was what the British did so well. Hitler never thought what he was doing was either wrong or bad. He thought he was doing the wolrd a favour, making the world a better place. I'm sure Stalin only wanted to modernise the Soviet Union. And Saddam Hussein probably beleived he was making Iraq into a greatest nation in the Gulf. None of these people saw themselves as bad. Doing bad things is very easy to justify. It just takes a bit of juggling with a few ideas.

indeed

Commie Journalist: "The car was deliberately targeted."
U.S.: "That's just absurd."

'Nuff said.

ummmmmmmm



what in the blue blazes are you talking about?

perhaps you accidently responded to the wrong thread?

http://www.inreview.com/showthread....567&forumid=371

if that is what you are referring to... please keep those comments in that thread.

Yes, I did. My aplogies to all.

"The United States and the U.S. stand together in support of the Iraqi people and the new Iraqi government, which will soon come into action. "
-- Dubya redefines the coalition present in Iraq, Brussels, Belgium, Feb. 22, 2005

-HECK!