7,000,000 SARS cases by years end

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Forum

I compiled the daily SARS case totals within a speadsheet and ran some basic stats. The results project that the number of SARS cases may exceed 7,000,000 by the end of the year if it continues on the current path. It's amazing how much fast the caes are rising. The ave. rise per day is 3% and this is based on throwing out a few unusally high figures.

Please see some of the results below and select Stats from the left-hand side of the page.

http://www.urbanisarsvirus.com

Chemaster

These are loose calculations to put things into perspective. If the rate in which cases result in death continues to rise at its current pace - we could expect in upwards of 1.4 million deaths as a result. If the death rate were to level out at 4%, with 7,000,000 cases - the number dead would be more like 280,000 in the first year.

Those states have not encourporated a lot of factors. I think your stats are possible, but i don't think they are probable or likely with SARS. But it will be interesting to see how much speard something like this can have in a short space of time, and how quickly it can travel. It's nice to see that the predictions of all those shows about upcoming plagues were more or less correct.

This was never meant to be a prediction. I was just throwing out some numbers for conversation.

I just thought the increase in SARS cases in a month's span was remarkable and there is a alot of concern here.

Steve

I agree there is a lot of concern. What we do not understand we fear. SARS was new a month ago. People were not educated, word was just starting to speard. People were not taking it seriously in some cases and not following quaentine.

I think in just 5 short weeks we have come along way. We are better educated, taking better precausions. We have now definitively identified the virus as a coronia virus. This will help them figure out the best way to fight it and clearly identify the cases of it.

I do admit that it's still alarming, but i think we have the ability to contain this, unlike other things we could be facing.

I fully understand using stats to see where the desease will go, but so much with this depends on human behaviour and our willingness to change our regular behavoiur to fight this.

I find it of interest also because my degree is in Chemistry with a minor in Biology even though I'm a website designer.

I find it of interest also because we can not prevent OR cure the common cold and this strain is a variance of the same.

Steve

http://www.urbanisarsvirus.com

This is why i worry about influeza more than anythng else. I mean the one from last century wiped out between 22-40 million people in a really short space of time.

If that hits again with the same lethal intent that it did last time that will be a real problem.

They dug up the strain from that time period to see why it was so lethal. I hope they don't let it get out of hand again. That would be bad.