British Intelligence: Saddam Survived Attack

Post-9/11 Era Forum

Saddam Hussein survived an attack on a building in Baghdad in which he was reported to have been meeting his sons Uday and Qusay on Monday afternoon, British intelligence sources said last night.

"He was probably not in the building when it was bombed," a well-placed source said. The source added it was believed that President Saddam had been in the building earlier.

The American pilot of a B-1 bomber circling nearby was told the Iraqi president had entered the building. Twelve minutes later, the pilot dropped four 2,000lb joint direct attack munition bombs on it.

Intelligence sources declined to say how the information about the Iraqi leader's whereabouts was gleaned, whether from listening devices, special forces, or Iraqi informers on the ground. Pentagon officials had referred to three credible sources of "human intelligence" locating President Saddam in the building, in the upmarket district of Mansur, which is still under Iraqi control.

As fighting continued in Baghdad yesterday, American fire killed three journalists in attacks on the al-Jazeera office and on the Palestine Hotel on the east bank of the Tigris. At least 50 Iraqi fighters were killed, one American officer said, during a day in which US forces seized Rashid airport, in Baghdad, and fought back an Iraqi counterattack as they tightened their control of the capital. Coalition troops entered the city from the north for the first time, officials said.

The Iraqi information ministry and the Ba'ath party headquarters were apparently targeted by American bombs, and two US soldiers were injured in sniper fire.

The intelligence sources de scribed their view that President Saddam had not been killed in Monday's attack as a "preliminary assessment", presumably from intelligence in Baghdad. But the Pentagon said yesterday it could be days before it was known for certain who had died.

At least 40 senior officials were understood to be meeting President Saddam and his sons in a bunker at the back of the building, connected to a restaurant. Iraqi officials said they found two bodies in the rubble and were searching for another 14 they thought were still buried, but said no members of the leadership had been killed.

A Pentagon official said determining President Saddam's fate might rest on DNA tests - based on samples the US is rumoured to have obtained from his relatives or perhaps even the Iraqi leader himself.

Lieutenant Colonel Fred Swan, the bomber's weapons officer, said the crew had sensed it "might be the big one". But Major General Stanley McChrystal, at the Pentagon, said: "We do not have hard battle-damage assessment on what individuals were or were not there."

The US sought to play down the matter. "I don't think it matters that much. I'm not losing sleep trying to figure out if he was in there," the defence department spokeswoman, Torie Clarke, said.

"I don't know whether he survived," President George Bush said in Belfast. "The only thing I know is he's losing power."

In a counterattack which US commanders described as serious, Iraqi T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and surface-to-air missiles attacked coalition troops, and Iraqi soldiers drove trucks and buses full of fighters across the Tigris in an attempt to overrun a US position. And in a rare Iraqi strike, an American A-10 Thunderbolt tank buster aircraft was shot down. The pilot ejected and was rescued.

Source: Guardian (UK)

The reports I heard claimed the intelligence came from three independent soruces. The first was a senior Iraqi defector who told them when and where the meeting was to take place. The second came from special forces who saw him enter the building, and the third came from listening devices which picked up his voice inside the building. I'm not sure what thier source was, but I've heard that on more than one news network.

Multiple U.S. intelligence sources saw Saddam Hussein enter a building in Baghdad on Monday and not emerge before four 1-ton Air Force bombs destroyed it, government officials said yesterday.
One official said some analysts believe the multiple eyewitness accounts suggest the Iraqi dictator is dead. The penetrating bombs reduced the building near the popular al Saa restaurant to rubble.
The official described the CIA yesterday as being "in a state of euphoria."
"They say there is no doubt he is dead," said a U.S. military official on the condition of anonymity.
But an intelligence official cautioned yesterday that Washington has not made a final determination on whether Saddam was killed in the strike. This official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said there is no doubt senior Ba'ath Party and Iraqi intelligence officials were killed, but "in terms of knowing who was killed, we just don't know."
The bombs — four GBU-31s, two with delayed fuses to maximize damage inside a bunker — demolished a row of homes and businesses, and left a deep crater in the Baghdad center-city neighborhood of Mansur.
It took 45 minutes in all to hit the building once the intelligence was received. It took a B-1B crew 12 minutes to reprogram the four satellite-guided bombs, fly to the target and release the weapons.
The conclusive evidence could come in the form of DNA from the site, or monitored communications of "chatter" to confirm a death that might bring the collapse of the Ba'ath regime and a speedy end to the war.
The bombing culminated a fairly complex operation of tracking Saddam's movements. His youngest son, Qusai, the heir apparent and the director of Baghdad's defenses, also may have been seen entering the building.
The hunt for the Iraqi leader intensified after his regime broadcast Friday on state-run television a videotape of Saddam suddenly emerging in the Mansur neighborhood, greeting a crowd of well-wishers. He may have felt relatively safe there on Monday. He also had taken a walk there and not been harmed. The area is a Ba'ath stronghold. In addition, allied forces have sought to avoid bombing such residential areas.
One U.S. official said the fact that Saddam had been in the neighborhood during the war meant he might return — which he eventually did.
The CIA determined the videotape was that of Saddam, not a double, and was fairly recent. The assessment meant Saddam had survived a March 19 bombing similar to the strike Monday. The Air Force put four "bunker buster" bombs on his underground safe house in south Baghdad, and there were reports later that he may have been killed.
The United States stepped up surveillance in the Mansur area, using Iraqi spies, CIA officers, and Army Delta Force commandos who wear disguises to appear as Iraqis.
Intelligence officials declined to say how they learned of the meeting Monday. But an estimated 30 persons attended, including officials of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, or the Mukhabarat, and senior Ba'ath members.
An intelligence report reaching Washington said the meeting would take place near a well-known landmark — the al Saa restaurant, a popular eatery for the upscale inhabitants of Mansur. The Washington Times reported yesterday that Saddam's meeting place was under or behind the restaurant. An official said yesterday that the target was in a bunkered house behind the restaurant.
On Monday afternoon, Saddam showed up with his bodyguard entourage and entered the building, the eyewitnesses said. The dictator was being tracked by the CIA, a CIA-recruited spy and a Delta commando. One of them communicated on a secure line to the CIA's headquarters in Langley, which alerted the U.S. Central Command forward headquarters in Doha, Qatar.
Central Command gave the order to an airborne B-1B bomber crew, armed with 2,000-pound penetrating bombs for just such an opportunity to kill a high-value target in a bunkered building.
In minutes, the four-seat Air Force bomber was over Baghdad, and released four of the satellite-guided GBU-31s. They obliterated a block of businesses and residences. One resident said 14 bodies were seen at the site during the ongoing rescue effort, including children.
"What we have for battle-damage assessment right now is essentially a hole in the ground, a site of destruction where we wanted it to be, where we believe high-value targets were," Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, vice director of operations of the Joint Staff, said at a Pentagon press conference. "We do not have a hard and fast assessment of what individual or individuals were on site."
U.S. informants did not see Saddam leave the building before the bombs hit.
The B-1B crew told their story yesterday in a telephone call to Pentagon reporters from their undisclosed base in the region. They said they had just completed midair refueling over western Iraq when the call came.
An AWACS airborne control aircraft radioed the B-1B that it had a new target — senior Iraqi leadership officials in Baghdad.
"At the time, for me, what I was thinking was, 'Well, you know, this could be the big one,' " said Col. Fred Swan, the bomber's weapon system officer. "Let's make sure we get it right."
Col. Swan said it took 12 minutes — from the time they got the target coordinates and plugged them into each bomb's global positioning system (GPS) guidance — to the time the four munitions were dropped.
"That's how quick the system can work," Col. Swan said. "We confirmed the coordinates and then that took about 12 minutes to fly to the target and release the weapons."
He added: "There was a lot of time to reflect on the two-hour drive back to our base, and at that time, again, just everybody's proud to be doing their job and making it happen."
Col. Swan said that to make the mission work someone had to be on the ground in Baghdad giving the building's coordinates.
"In this case, you know, I don't have any particulars of who was down there or what, but it obviously had to happen that way to be able to get the coordinates to us," he said.
Central Command said yesterday it would like access to the bomb site to determine who was killed. But allied forces do not yet control Mansur.
While U.S. intelligence has picked up communications "chatter" that Qusai is still directing troops, it has heard nothing from Saddam's other son, Uday. There are unconfirmed reports that he was killed in the March 19 bombing from which Saddam had managed to escape.
In Belfast, at a war-strategy meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, President Bush said he did not know whether Saddam was killed.
"The only thing I can tell you is that that grip I used to describe that Saddam had around the throats of the Iraqi people [is] loosening," Mr. Bush said at a joint news conference. "I can't tell you if all 10 fingers are off the throat, but finger by finger's coming off."

Source: Washington Times

A key Iraqi opposition leader says he has information that Saddam Hussein survived an airstrike in Baghdad and escaped from the capital with at least one of his sons.

However, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said he did not know whether Saddam was dead or alive.

"He's either dead, or he's incapacitated, or he's healthy and cowering in some tunnel someplace trying to avoid being caught. What else can one say?" Rumsfeld said.

Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi told CNN Wednesday the unconfirmed reports indicated that the Iraqi president had taken refuge in the city of Baqubah, northeast of the Iraqi capital.

"We have no evidence they have been killed in that attack. We know at least that Qusay, his son, has survived and he is occupying some houses in the Diyala area," Chalabi said.

The same reports indicated that Gen. Ali Hassan al-Majeed -- nicknamed "Chemical Ali" -- was wounded but alive and in the same area.

While Chalabi offered gratitude to the coalition for Iraq's liberation, he also expressed irritation that the coalition has not provided more assistance in cities such as Nasiriya and Basra.

As long as humanitarian and infrastructure problems in the country persist, Chalabi said, the country will remain unstable, despite the coalition's military progress. Referring to Iraqi's ruling Baath Party, he called for "de-Baathification" of the country.

"There will be no absolute security with the current situation. The U.S. troops have defeated Saddam militarily. That was never a problem. The issue is the Baath party and the remnants of the Baath party who will continue to pose a threat."

He asked why coalition officials are in Kuwait when the southern region is in "great need of assistance."

"This is true all over the south," he said.

"It's very important to be in the southern part of Iraq," he said, because people have become "dispossessed" and the citizenry needs to be "empowered."

"They must feel they are part of the political process," he said.

"Where is General Garner now?" Chalabi said, referring to retired Army Gen. Jay Garner, who is to head up U.S. reconstruction effort in Iraq.

"The people need assistance here in Nasiriya. Why are they not here? Why don't they work to rehabilitate the electricity and water? Why don't they start working on the curriculum? Why are they in Kuwait? This area is in great need of assistance now. People are hungry. Their supplies are going to run out. Basic services have to be restored," he said.

"Where are they?"

He said he met with a Marine commander in Nasiriya to "get a police force going."

"I think the way to move forward is to create a police force from scratch. Many of the police officers have gone home," he said.

Source: CNN