| By NAO SHIMOYACHI
Staff writer
Looking apprehensive, Masaharu Ito sits on a bench beside an approach road lined with stalls leading to Kogan Temple in Tokyo's Toshima ward. He has just finished paying homage at the shrine.
"Tokyo may be attacked, caught off guard," says the 61-year-old roofer.
Ito believes that after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, Japan is no longer safe. He believes this is especially true now that Japan has joined the U.S.-led war on terrorism by sending Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels to the Indian Ocean to offer logistic support.
With the war in Iraq and North Korean military brinkmanship making headlines almost every day, Ito's opinions are commonly held in Japan, whose citizens have often been criticized for being oblivious of military affairs.
A poll conducted by the Cabinet Office in January and released Saturday found that nearly 80 percent of the respondents said they believe Japan could be drawn into a war.
The Cabinet Office has conducted polls on the nation's defense policy and the SDF every three years since 1972, using almost identical questions.
Of the 2,126 who answered the latest nationwide poll, 43.2 percent said it is very likely that Japan will be involved in a war, while 36.8 percent said it is possible. The total of 80 percent marks a sharp increase over the 64.5 percent who gave similar answers in the previous poll, in 2000.
Those who said involvement in a conflict is unlikely dropped by 12.1 points to just 11.1 percent.
According to the poll, 74.4 percent of people believe the biggest area of security concern is North Korea. Arms, such as weapons of mass destruction and missiles, came next with 34.7 percent, while the Middle East followed closely with 33.9 percent.
The poll showed that a record 15.8 percent, up 2.3 points from the 2000 poll, believe "the SDF should be reinforced."
"The results of the poll clearly reflect the sense of crisis spurred by current international situations concerning Iraq and North Korea," said an official of the Cabinet Office.
The swing in public opinion may encourage the government's efforts on defense. The ruling parties hope to pass emergency legislation on Japan's response to a military attack by the end of April, and the Defense Agency is pushing for the development of a missile defense system in cooperation with the United States.
However, opinions were divided on defense budgets, reflecting the nation's grim economic conditions, according to the government office.
Of those responding, 11.8 percent, up 1.1 points from the previous poll, said they want the defense budget to increase. By comparison, 15 percent, also up 1.1 percent, said they want to see a cut in military spending.
Since the end of World War II, Japan has never spent more than 1.8 percent of its gross domestic product on defense.
The poll also found that 48 percent said they would offer some form of support to the SDF if Japan was invaded by foreign forces, while 55.6 percent believe education should include elements designed to raise public awareness about defense of the nation.
The results of the poll form an interesting contrast to the 1991 poll, which was conducted during the Gulf War.
A plurality of 26 percent in that poll supported cuts to the defense budget, while a record 25 percent supported nonmilitary forms of resistance in the event of foreign aggression.
The reason for this difference may be geopolitical, as evidenced by the remarks of a 78-year-old woman who struck up a conversation with Ito.
She said Japan should lend support to a U.S.-led campaign against terrorism more confidently now that the threat from North Korea seems imminent.
"To me, (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Il is a bigger threat than (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein," she said.
The Japan Times: March 30, 2003 | |
