Why Aren't Iraqi Citizens Dancing In The Streets?

Post-9/11 Era Forum

Why US getting a wary welcome
As US forces fight in southern Iraq, the shifting loyalties of civilians could be key.
By Peter Ford | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
AMMAN, JORDAN – Through the fog of war in Iraq, one conclusion is emerging. The "rose petal and rice" scenario, under which Washington optimists envisaged a warm and immediate welcome for US and British troops, was mistaken.

Reporters with combat troops have recounted scenes of happy Iraqi civilians fraternizing with the soldiers. But they have also broadcast TV pictures of sullen groups of men and neutral bystanders. And paramilitary Iraqi "fedayeen," as well as regular troops, are putting up considerable resistance.
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Whether ordinary Iraqis turn out to be grateful for liberation or resentful at invasion will be crucial both to the success of the military campaign now under way, and to longer- term American plans for the country they hope to capture. But it may be too early to draw conclusions about which sentiment - patriotic pride, fear, or hatred of President Hussein - runs deepest in Iraqi hearts.

"You cannot expect ordinary Iraqi people who have lived for years under the boot of Saddam, and who have ... before been let down, I am afraid, by allied forces, to be confident they are able to come out and express their views until they are sure that Saddam's regime has gone," British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday, remarking on the lack of Stars and Stripes-waving crowds in Umm Qasr.

Fighting for hearts and minds

"The fear factor is major," agrees Richard Murphy, a former US assistant secretary of State for the Near East who now works at the Council on Foreign Relations. "But I wonder whether ... the desire to to defend God and country by shooting up the invaders has more appeal than we have given it credit for."

Wednesday, US soldiers escorted a seven-truck convoy of Kuwaiti-donated food and water into Umm Qasr, in the sort of gesture expected to win hearts and minds among a war-stricken population. A British Navy ship was expected to dock in Umm Qasr's deepwater port on Thursday, bringing the first seaborne aid to Iraq.

US military commanders could also find succor in reports of a popular uprising against Hussein's regime that British intelligence suggested had broken out in the southern city of Basra on Tuesday. But an Al Jazeera TV correspondent in the city reported no sign of a rebellion Wednesday.

Shiite Muslims who rose up in revolt in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War were brutally repressed by government forces when coalition troops stood aside after President Bush encouraged Iraqis to "take matters into their own hands."

That experience, seen as a betrayal, "has left deep scars" on local residents, says Cliff Beal, editor of Jane's Defence Weekly.

Both in southern Iraq and elsewhere, "there will be a strong element of prudence among a large part of the population," predicts Charles Tripp, a historian of Iraq at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

"If you combine the feeling among much of the opposition that this is an American and British show with the understandable caution of people after 35 years of Baathist dictatorship - these are huge inhibitors," Dr. Tripp adds.

That is especially true when even towns that the allied troops claim to have secured turn out to have been seeded with irregular fedayeen militiamen, who are beginning to fight a guerrilla war, often dressed in civilian clothes.

This will complicate the military campaign, predicts Mr. Beal. "If you don't know who's who, if you cannot trust the civilian population, you have to devote more resources to keeping an eye on them."

The risks could also sour relations between civilians and invading troops, which Washington and London are eager to keep friendly. "If your mate has just been shot by someone looking very like the man coming down the road, you are not likely to give him a courteous reception," Tripp points out.

The picture would be further muddied should Iraqi tribesmen, many of whom have been armed by the government, join the battle. Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf said Wednesday that "tens of thousands" of such tribesmen had turned back a US military column south of Najaf.

Should fedayeen and other Iraqi troops continue to hole up in towns and cities, as they are expected to do, US and British forces - anxious to avoid civilian casualties so as not to underline their desired image as liberators - will face a cruel dilemma.

"I don't envy a commander having to decide whether to ratchet up firepower," says Beal. "If you don't apply firepower effectively, you risk not accomplishing your objectives and increasing the danger to your own troops. And a commander's No. 1 responsibility is to his objectives and his men."

If allied forces feel obliged to launch all-out offensives against cities such as Baghdad, ordinary Iraqis will simply keep their heads down, says Tripp. "I don't think they will rise up unless an [Iraqi] officer shows the lead. Why risk your life now if the allies are there in such force?"

At the same time, those Iraqis putting up resistance are presumably fueling their morale with Hussein's confident televised addresses, giving the sense that he and his government are still in control. (Iraqi TV came back on the air Wednesday morning, several hours after its transmission tower in Baghdad had been bombed.)

"There is a nationalistic element underlying this," says Beal. "Some of these men are fighting for their hometowns, and government propaganda says the Americans are coming to take their homes and dishonor their women."

Though this applies to members of the ruling Baath party, the militia and the army, most Iraqis are expected to judge the incoming forces by their experiences during and after the fighting.

'Suspicions are high'

"A significant number" of Iraqis "expressed the view that if ... change required an American attack, they would support it," found a recent report by the International Crisis Group think tank in Brussels, based on extensive interviews with ordinary people in Iraq last October.

However, "if the war proved to be bloody or protracted, or if Iraq lacked sufficient assistance afterwards, the support in question may well not be very long sustained," it warned.

This "underlines the need for us to be absolutely committed to what we have talked about, getting an interim Iraqi administration launched as soon as possible and building to a constituent assembly," says Mr. Murphy. "There must be no question who is running Iraq."

That will be difficult, he warns, because "suspicions are high, and we can easily give the impression that we are there to stay."

If that happens, predicts Said Aburish, a Palestinian author who has written a biography of Hussein, "there will be two months of love and affection, and then people will turn around and ask 'What are you doing here?' "

The current uncertainties over Iraqi citizens' response to the invasion "may all blow away like a bad dream," says Murphy.

"But," he adds, "I am not sure that we have paid enough attention to the fact that there is nationalist sentiment that has to be respected."

How could it be else?
They will sure be happy to get rid of Saddam, but they won't forget how the embargo affected them.They won't welcome people who starved them !!! Furthermore, they are certainly brainwashed too...

People aren't dancing in the streets because the last time they did and Saddam slaughtered them for it. Once he is captured or killed they will come out...but they are a bit leary this time around (with good reason). They thought their horror was over in 1991...they were wrong and some paid dearly for it.

Well you go ahead and trust Saddam...and if you are that gullible I have a bridge in Brookyn for sale too.

Was Bush Sr.'s betrayal of the Shiites and Kurds unacceptable...yes. Then I guess it's a good thing that someone's going to set those wrongs right...that someone is his son.

Also, the US doesn't "consistently betrayed their friends" I fail to see how you can point to one example and make a generalization. Did we leave them out to dry? Absoluetely. But it wasn't as if the Kurds were some great ally of ours. That being said, I would agree that it was a crummy thing to do...and yes we should have gotten rid of Saddam in 1991.

GuyFromPakistan,

Please tell us about the Pakastani Schools of Jihad.
We are told in the U.S. that there are hundreds of these schools that have taught millions of Pakastani and Arab students over the last 10 years to hate and kill all Americans or non-Mulsilms.
Is this true?
You see? We get information too, much like you. Some of it we believe and some of it we do not but, as you know, not all is true.
Please think with your heart and not let everything you read or hear brainwash you into hating every people because they are different or have other religious views. Everyone, including you, want and deserve a certain amount of freedom and rights.

There is only one God with many children. Children like Christians, Muslim, and Jewish and.......

Peace

GuyFromPakistan

I detect a lot of resentment in your reply. Contrary to your belief, we have many educated individuals here and we take the media and television as free speach only. Free speach means you can say antyhing you want. It doesn't make it true OR believable.
We don't view our media as Gospel as you say. However, images that are displayed speak to us more in a believable way.

Thank you for your view and description on your belief of what Jihad is. I do think, as in other religions and preachings that people will screw the preachings to make it FIT their own version. I.e. Alqueda. We know everyone is not like that and I am happy to see you are not one of those.

I guess what is hard to understand is that if Jihad is a defense, why don't people who are suffering from the murderous routines of a govenment stand up and Jihad against them to resolve the issues against their own rights? There are millions of people in Iraq who are Muslim and only a small number in the government who are purpetrating the actions against their civilians.

Why do they put up with it? Why would they revolt against the very people who want to help them out of the situation?
It seems that this religious belief is also preventing them from helping themselves?

France will stand on what ever side of the fence they want. They change with the wind and we have knwn this for years. It is nothing new. Their goals revolve around oil contracts that may get upset because of a new regime. They fear that the world will hear that they and Russia are friends with Saddam and not Iraqi interests.

Think of the future and not the past. There are new leaders and new thinkers who view human rights as a priority to survival.

When a new Irqaq emerges and they become free of fear and murder they can focus on a better life for all. It has to be this way.

So this is about religion. Muslims do hate Americans. Hmmm.
You say 800 million Muslims not 800 million people.

We are not blowing Iraq back to the cave period. Although we could, we chose not to. That is not the goal and you know it.

Quit complaining and go fight for what you believe. Go to Iraq and pull together with them and find a peacful solution.

It sounds to me that all the Middle East wants is to be left alone.
I personally can deal with that. But, they also want our money.

What if the U.S. pulled completely out of the Middle East.
What if we left Turkey, Afganastan, Kuwait and Saudi and disbanded every military base? What if we said, "Fine, let them solve their problems on their own because they obviously don't want our help".
I can live with that too. But don't ask for help and then turn you back. And don't come to this country to force your views on the Americans either.

Would that stop the American hatred? No. Because that isn't enough. They still want money and support from the U.S.

Keep selling the oil to Russia and France and we will find other sources for fuel. There are plenty of countries willing to sell it and we are willing to buy it.

Personally, I would like nothing more that to disband the whole region and let them solve their own problems using religion as their basis or what ever it is they use to protect thier rights.

But pulling out would allow you to eventually all get back to normal. What ever normal is.

Do you actually believe that the US was never ASKED for help by those countries? Do think we forced ourselves on them and opened up military base so we could attack Muslims?

Each country has the right to kick out anyone and that includes or military bases. Why don't they?

Because they fear their neighbors and can't protect themselves.
Talking does not deter and they know it.

Our military doesn't pump oil to the U.S. They have a specific mission.

I'm a Christian, and I hate one particular American...Bush!

Anybody Else in 2004!

BTW, papa bush stopped the first war without removing Sadam at the urging of the UN.

If the US had been in embargo for 12 years mainly because of Iraq, if your country was attacked by people of different religion, wich you would concider hostile to you, if your capital was under threat of becoming under siege and blown to pieces, if you were patriotic and loved your country more than its leader, would you dance on the streets when the iraqis were coming closer to Washington. Ask yourself this.

This is NOT about Religion although, it just so happens that the Muslim Fundamentalists are the most distrubed and psycotic faction on the face of the earth. If it was Christian Fundamentalists threatening me and my family, I wouldn't hestitate there either.

This is also not about a specific country. It is about threat of death. Muslim Fundamentists spreading their plague throughout the world. Like them, we will fight to the death.

Get off the Religious and oil kick. This is about death. personally anyone will is willing to kill me or my family is MY enemy. I will kill them first but, I will give them about 1 milli-second to give up first.

Those who attack MY country or support attacks on MY country are MY enemy.