U.S. warns of 'day of resistance' in Iraq

Post-9/11 Era Forum

American soldier, Iraqi policeman killed
Friday, October 31, 2003 Posted: 2:48 PM EST (1948 GMT)


BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- With the U.S. Consulate in Baghdad urging Americans to take precautions amid rumors of a "day of resistance" this weekend, violent skirmishes left two dead and injured others Friday in Iraq.

A U.S. soldier from the 82nd Airborne Division was killed and four others wounded when a homemade bomb exploded near Khaldiya, a town west of Baghdad, a spokesman with the U.S.-led coalition said. No other details were available.

An Iraqi policeman also was killed in a riot near Baghdad International Airport, where U.S. troops and armed Iraqis exchanged fire.

A witness said residents were protesting the imprisonment of Iraqis in nearby Abu Ghraib prison when a U.S. military vehicle pulled up on a curb near the demonstration. Stones were thrown at the U.S. troops and a riot broke out, the witness said.

Elsewhere, a bomb exploded outside the mayor's office in Fallujah, west of Baghdad. No word of casualties in the explosion was available, but several police, one attacker and some nearby civilians were wounded in the firefight that followed, an eyewitness said.

Attacks against U.S. forces and Iraqi police have escalated recently, with the most dramatic and bloodiest day coming Monday. More than 30 people were killed then in four suicide bombings in Baghdad, including an assault on the International Committee of the Red Cross headquarters.

Friday's death raises the U.S. combat death toll to 118 since President Bush declared an end to major hostilities May 1.

Weekend warning issued
Acknowledging what news organizations have heard in recent days, the U.S. Consulate issued a statement saying that "U.S. citizens are encouraged to continue to maintain a high level of vigilance and continue to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness."

A number of dates have been mentioned for possible attacks, but the common one is for Saturday.

Separately, officials with the Army's 1st Armored Division -- in charge of U.S. troops in Baghdad -- said they have stepped up their security presence in the city.

Australia said it received credible reports of terrorist threats in central Baghdad around the al Hamra Hotel and advised all Australians to leave Iraq and defer all travel to the country.

One U.S.-led coalition official said threats against Iraqis are coming mostly to schools, where men with their heads covered in black cloth, have threatened students, teachers and families.

The threats have been verbal and written on paper, saying that no one will be safe and police stations, schools, markets, mosques, hotels and nongovernmental organizations will be targeted regardless of women and children in the areas, the official said.

The threats are coming from all over the country but are focused on Saddam Hussein's strongholds where most of the violence has occurred, including Baghdad, Fallujah and the Sunni "Triangle" area.

Renewed violence comes amid an article Friday in The New York Times suggesting that Saddam may be playing a significant role in recent attacks against U.S. forces. U.S. officials are denying the report, saying it's unlikely the former Iraqi leader has a direct role in the attacks.

Other developments
• U.S. forces are ferreting for Saddam through the Tikrit area, his ancestral homeland. The military is cordoning off Al Owja, a town five miles south of downtown Tikrit and Saddam's birthplace. Lt. Col. Steve Russell, a 4th Infantry Division battalion commander, said there is one entry/exit point to the town. Repairs to the bridge in Tikrit is a primary reason for the cordon, officials said, but Col. James Hickey admitted that "security issues" also prompted this move.

• With Friday's noon deadline passing, staff members of the Senate Intelligence Committee said they did not expect federal agencies to deliver all their documents and schedule interviews and testimony concerning prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons program by that time. The Senate panel had sent bluntly worded letters this week to the White House, State Department, Pentagon and CIA, demanding documents relevant to its investigation into prewar intelligence. One staff member said, "Some things are coming in." Officials at the agencies said they were working to meet the demands, though they indicated they would not be finished by the deadline.

• U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday he will appoint a team of experts to look into security flaws that led to the August attack on the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad. Twenty-two people were killed in the bombing.

• The U.S. State Department said it would offer up to $5 million for information leading to the capture of Abu Musab al Zarqawi -- a Jordanian with ties to al Qaeda and the suspected mastermind of the deadly August bombing of the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad. The State Department originally had listed the reward amount as $25 million but later said that figure was a mistake. (Full story)

• On Capitol Hill, the House of Representatives approved the $87 billion Iraq and Afghanistan spending bill, clearing the way for final Senate approval and a presidential signature in the coming days. The 298-121 vote came after the Senate stripped from the bill a controversial provision requiring that half the $18.4 billion for Iraq reconstruction projects be loans, not grants. The White House fought hard to keep the money as a grant, arguing Iraq could not afford to take on new debt while it is in such a fragile state. (Full story)

• A gruesome videotape obtained by CNN from independent sources allegedly shows the brutal punishment administered by the Fedayeen Saddam, young soldiers recruited from regions loyal to Saddam, to enforce discipline under the regime of the former Iraqi leader. U.S. troops found the video in April, according to Pentagon sources. (Full story)

WASHINGTON — "It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and that nothing should take priority over it," said the terrorist leader. "Crusader military forces" of the United States and Britain, he warned, had established a beachhead in the Muslim world to impose a new imperialism on the Middle East and gain control of the region's oil.

The words of an Iraqi resistance leader? No. The words of Osama bin Laden in his "Declaration of War Against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places" in 1996.

The American beachhead Bin Laden was referring to was Saudi Arabia, but his followers, active supporters and sympathizers today view his words as prophetic of the U.S.-led invasion and conquest of
Iraq. We don't know the identities of the terrorists behind the recent wave of attacks in Iraq, but they appear to have a variety of backgrounds — Hussein loyalists, Iraqis seeking to empower various factions, Al Qaeda terrorists and other anti-American forces. But we do know their fundamental metric of success is their ability to attack and terrorize, and that the media can bring news of a terrorist attack to billions of people within a few hours. Terrorists crave the regenerative power of a single, new, dramatic attack that can put them in the spotlight.

In this respect, governments are inevitably only as good as their last failure. No matter how many attacks they prevent, no matter how many people are not killed daily by terrorists, what's remembered is the relatively small number of terrorist attacks that succeed.

There's no question that the United States and other governments have made significant progress in the war against global terrorism in recent months. Our airports and planes are far better protected. Government buildings are surrounded by new barriers and other security measures. Many terrorists are in prison cells or in graves as a result of counter-terrorism work by the United States and its allies. But all that's needed is one new, successful attack.

At the end of World War II, the once-mighty armies of Germany and Japan were broken and simply stopped fighting. But despite the crushing defeat in Afghanistan of Al Qaeda and its Taliban allies, terrorist incidents linked to Al Qaeda occurred in the last two years in places as diverse as Tunisia, Pakistan, Jordan, Indonesia, Kuwait, the Philippines, Yemen, Kenya and now possibly Iraq. The terrorist organization has continued to use suicide bombers — at sea and on land. And commercial aviation has remained a significant Al Qaeda target, as July's warning from the Transportation Security Administration showed.

The war against terrorism thus appears to be in a transitional state. Our counter-terrorism measures are becoming stronger. Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are scrambling to adapt to new, less-congenial operational environments. During this period, we are likely to see increased recruitment of second- and third-generation European Muslims.

Recruitment efforts are already targeting Muslim youth living in the Netherlands who were previously assumed to be thoroughly assimilated. Al Qaeda operatives will seek to embed themselves in, and draw new sources of support from, established overseas communities. Such recruits don't usually come under the scrutiny of local or national law enforcement.

Al Qaeda's main challenge is to promote and ensure its durability as an ideology and concept. It can do this only by staying in the news, by elbowing aside potential terrorist competitors and by launching new attacks that reinforce its relevance to the Muslim world. Violence will continue to be key to these objectives.

In the post-9/11 environment, terrorism's power — to coerce and intimidate, to force changes in social behavior and to influence U.S. policies and spending — has increased enormously. The stakes, accordingly, have grown, as have public fear and expectations.

More and more, the measure of success in the war on terrorism is defined as the ability of intelligence agencies and law enforcement organizations to prevent, preempt or deter attacks. Conversely, the standard of success for the terrorists has become simply the ability to spread death, destruction and fear. Unfortunately, it's a lot easier to attack a single target than to defend an infinite number of potential targets.

Although there is a world of difference between bombing a hotel in Jakarta and attacking the Pentagon and laying the World Trade Center to waste, the impact the terrorists seek is not necessarily dissimilar. Al Qaeda's power — and the appeal of its idea of radical jihad — in the world stems from the extraordinary success of its murderous 9/11 attacks.

All this points to a long, long struggle ahead in the war against terrorism. There will be far more victories than defeats, but no matter how successful we are, someone, somewhere, is probably plotting the next attack.


By Bruce Hoffman. Bruce Hoffman is a terrorism expert with the Rand Corp., a nonprofit research organization.